A historic trade deal is to be signed between India and the USA, whose framework was released last week. In India, as well as the USA, there is a raging debate on whether the deal will help reignite the economies in both countries or if it will favour only one.
Promises versus performance
In his election campaign, Trump had projected himself as the protector of the economic interests of Americans, much like a magician with a magic wand, and had declared that he would make America great again and, after coming to power, would rid Americans of their economic miseries. But after completing a year in office, he seemed nowhere close to fulfilling the promise. Rather, his approval rating as president has been sliding on a daily basis. Different survey agencies have put him in the category of the worst-performing presidents since the Second World War.
Trump won the presidential election in 2024 with 49.8 per cent of the votes. His approval rating slipped to 36 per cent in December. Despite his bravado of capturing Venezuelan President Maduro and bringing him to New York, his popularity has not improved. If he believes that a trade deal with India will resurrect his image in the eyes of Americans, then he is living in a fool’s paradise, and it is only tall claims that the deal will help America’s farmers and its market a great deal.
No doubt he has got a very good deal with India, with an 18 per cent tariff on Indian goods and zero or very low tariffs on American goods in the Indian market. But people are sceptical, and it is now being hotly debated whether the bubble named Trump is about to burst.
Global scepticism grows
The internationally reputed magazine The Economist writes: “As you might expect, approval of Mr Trump is lowest in states that tend to vote for Democrats and highest in those that tend to vote for Republicans. Mr Trump’s voters still overwhelmingly approve of his performance as president. But the projection also shows how dissatisfaction with Trump is widespread even in states that voted for him in 2024. The number will make anxious reading for Republicans facing competitive races in this year’s mid-term elections… Voters of pension age, normally a solidly Republican bloc, are also surprisingly lukewarm on the president.”
And nobody but Trump himself is to be blamed for the slide. Trump has not shown either economic vision or any blueprint for the future. Rather, he has created a situation that has made America a suspect globally. The consensus America built immediately after the Second World War with great effort about a rule-based world order, its indulgences for the promotion of democracy as a foreign policy pursuit, and building consensus for any global action is in tatters. The world, including its alliance partners, is looking at it with disbelief and scepticism.
Allies left uneasy
After the Second World War, as communism spread its tentacles ferociously, which many believed would demolish the capitalist order soon, America, with smart manoeuvring, stitched a security and defence umbrella with European countries called NATO and saved Europe and the world. Now, the same NATO is nowhere to be seen. European countries have been left to fend for themselves. In fact, today they feel threatened.
The Greenland episode and unilateral imposition of tariffs have made them think about delinking their future national strategies vis-à-vis the USA. If the Greenland episode had them worried about their national sovereignty, then the tariff war unleashed by Trump has caused them to carve their own path and search for new economic partners. The European Union’s trade deal with India is a massive move in this direction to minimise its trade dependence on the USA, which, in the long run, will damage America.
Damage to global institutions
Trump, in his thoughtlessness, has killed the United Nations as an international body whose creation minimised unilateral aggressive actions by member states and, as a result, the world witnessed fewer wars and bloodbaths since 1945 compared with corresponding years in earlier centuries. The unilateral attack on Venezuela and the creation of the Board of Peace for Gaza are fatal wounds inflicted by the Trump administration on the UN.
The disruptive tariff war has fatally damaged global financial and economic institutions too. The world is in great turmoil; no country or institution is feeling safe. Uncertainty is writ large. The Trump impact is so overwhelming that its tremors will be felt once he is gone. But has it benefited Americans on the streets? The answer is a big no.
Public confidence erodes
The Pew Research Centre, after its latest survey conducted between January 20 and 26, finds: “Across six key qualities and abilities (leadership skills, mental and physical fitness for the job, picking good advisers, respecting the country’s democratic values, and acting ethically) needed to serve as president, more Americans express little or no confidence in Trump than say they are extremely or very confident in him. Confidence is down on all six measures since last year, particularly among Republicans.”
The reason is simple. Jobless growth and no substantial improvement in the manufacturing sector, the key promises made by Trump, have caused a decline in his approval rating. The tariff war has added a severe headache too because of the uncertainty it has created in the global market, which is negatively affecting the USA as well. And China is sitting cool, waiting for the demise of the American empire to play its role as a global superpower.
Mr Trump, you have failed America.
The writer is Co-Founder, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B.
