Ramachandra Guha, one of our most highly respected historians and political commentators, recently suggested that Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi “quit politics immediately” to save Congress and democracy. Although many other political commentators have come to seriously question the vote-catching ability of the three Gandhis, Guha has gone to the far end, concluding that they have completely lost their ability and by remaining in leadership roles of Congress is only helping Narendra Modi and the BJP grow stronger. In essence, Guha sees the Gandhi family as a tumour the Congress must get rid of quickly to prevent the malignancy from spreading through its body leading to its death.
Guha bases his conclusion on three grounds. One, the dynasty is no longer acceptable to Indian voters. In politics, as in other professions, he says people are witnessing the rise of self-made men, such as Narendra Modi. Two, the Gandhis have failed in election after election in defeating the BJP and getting Congress back to power. Two, the Congress vote share has been going down and down. Three, Rahul Gandhi, the heir, does not have the ability to attract votes, build a robust organisation, and offer a strong challenge to Modi.
We shall examine each of the three grounds one by one to judge the correctness of Guha’s prescription for saving Congress and democracy.
Is dynasty really no longer acceptable to Indian voters? Facts point otherwise. Out of the 543 members of the Lok Sabha in 2014, as many as 114 belonged to political dynasties. Their number rose to 162 in 2019. The chief ministers of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and Jharkhand are from political dynasties.
It is not just the Congress that is led by a political dynasty. There are several parties led by political dynasties — the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Shiv Sena, the YSR Congress Party, the Telugu Desam Party, the Nationalist Congress Party, the Shiromani Akali Dal, the Biju Janata Dal, the Samajwadi Party, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Rashtriya Lok Dal, the Indian National Lok Dal, the Jannayak Janata Party, the National Conference, the Peoples Democratic Party, the Lok Janshakti Party, the Nishad Party, the Apna Dal (Kamerawadi), the Apna Dal (Sonelal) and so on. They have a substantial vote share. How can Guha presume that the Congress is destined to die owing to its dynastic leadership when many parties with dynastic leadership are politically thriving?
The power and pull of the dynastic parties are such that even the party led by a self-made politician Narendra Modi cannot do without an alliance with them. Modi’s BJP allied with the Shiromani Akali Dal, the Shiv Sena, the Telugu Desam Party, the Lok Janshakti Party, the Peoples Democratic Party, the Nishad Party, the Apna Dal (Sonelal), and the Jannayak Janata Party. It also enjoyed the backing of the Biju Janata Dal and the YSR Congress on several issues.
To say, therefore, as Guha does, that dynasty is a dinosaur in Indian politics is erroneous. It still holds a considerable territory of the political space and does not seem like going. The reason is, India as a society, is in transition. We are coming out of the feudal era. We have not come out of it yet. We are sort of midway. There is as much revulsion against dynastic leadership, therefore, as there is a fondness for it.
No wonder, the political scene presents a hybrid picture: we have both kinds of politicians — dynasts as well as self-made ones. And because society is in transition, it is not just true for politics. Industry, trade, and professions too are characterised by a hybrid picture. Guha mentions Bollywood as one of the fields where self-made persons rule. However, even in Bollywood, we have a hybrid — if you have the Ranveer Singhs, you have the Ranbir Kapoors too.
Guha’s second ground is the successive failure of the Gandhis, particularly Rahul Gandhi, to win elections. Can we dismiss someone after repeated failures? There are a trillion examples of individuals who have succeeded after humiliating defeats in whatever they were doing. Such individuals can be found in ancient, medieval, and modern histories and in all parts of the world and all fields of human activity — in wars, politics, business, sciences, arts, sports, mountaineering.
Guha’s third ground is the lack of ability of Rahul Gandhi to revive the Congress and lead the fight against the BJP. There again, Guha makes an error. How can we forget that in the first Lok Sabha campaign that he led as the party president in 2014, Congress got a 19.3 per cent share of the vote? In the second LS election in 2019, the party got a 19.6 per cent vote. It was a very marginal increase, but one cannot ignore the fact that whereas the party’s vote share had dipped by nine percent compared to 2009 in 2014, it did not dip any further in 2019. In terms of numbers, 10.69 crore Indians voted for Congress in 2014 and 11.86 crores in 2019. A man under whose leadership the party can attract 11-12 crore voters cannot be pricked off like a bubble. It is unfair to ask him to immediately retire.
Indeed, Rahul Gandhi cannot fight Modi alone. But nor can a coalition of regional parties without him. He has about 12 crore votes. He may have a million weaknesses, but the situation of the country is such that even the smallest kiln is needed to burn, bake, and dry bricks to build a thick, massive wall to protect democracy from the incessant attacks of the BJP.
The BJP is redefining nationalism. It is making people believe that nationalism is Hinduism and Hinduism is nationalism. There is a witch hunt for liberals and leftists across the country. There is a dual rule of law according to which persons of different religions and political ideologies are treated dissimilarly for the similar nature of the crime. There is a ubiquitous terror of mob. A large part of the media promotes the view of the Modi government. The language of the political discourse has turned toxic. The Indian state is no longer neutral to religion. The Prime Minister openly participates in the renovation and rituals of Hindu places of worship. Never before had a ruling party used the central investigating agencies so unrelentingly to weaken the opposition. Never before had a ruling party so inexorably poached opposition MLAs to gain power in states.
In such an extraordinary situation, even a non-charismatic Rahul Gandhi and a weakened Congress should be a part of the collective resistance.
(The writer is an independent journalist and author. Views are personal)
