The political temperature in Bihar is steadily rising ahead of the 2025 Assembly elections — and for the first time in decades, the state’s bipolar contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan faces a third, credible challenger. The entry of Prashant Kishor, the strategist-turned-politician, through his Jan Suraaj Party, has injected uncertainty and curiosity into a battle that had long seemed predictable. Whether he wins seats or not, Kishor’s campaign is already reshaping the grammar of Bihar politics.
The Relevance of Prashant Kishor
Prashant Kishor’s presence in the 2025 Bihar polls is significant for two reasons. First, he represents an attempt to move beyond the entrenched caste arithmetic that has defined Bihar’s politics for three decades. Second, he embodies a new form of political entrepreneurship — one that seeks to blend governance, integrity, and performance into an electoral narrative traditionally dominated by identity and patronage.
Having crafted winning campaigns for Narendra Modi in 2014, Nitish Kumar in 2015, and several regional leaders thereafter, Kishor now wants to test his formula on himself. His 2,600-km padyatra across 235 blocks and nearly 2,700 villages over 665 days has given him unmatched visibility and ground access. Yet, Bihar’s social fabric — thick with caste networks and local patronage — is not easily swayed by technocratic appeal alone.
Positives: The Promise of a New Political Language
Kishor’s biggest strength is his outsider image. He has distanced himself from Bihar’s entrenched political families, pitching himself as a self-made reformer untainted by dynasty or corruption. His slogan — “Vote for your children’s future” — resonates with young, aspirational voters who have grown up amid unemployment, migration, and frustration with both Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad’s legacies.
His campaign is distinct in method and message. Instead of relying on mass rallies or celebrity endorsements, Jan Suraaj focuses on micro-engagement — youth clubs, scholarships for girls, training centres, and digital outreach. This approach blends grassroots mobilisation with data-driven targeting, much like his professional campaigns of the past, but with a moral undertone.
Kishor also benefits from the fatigue factor in Bihar’s electorate. Many voters are disillusioned by Nitish Kumar’s serial alliances and the RJD’s dynastic image. Kishor’s entry offers them a psychological alternative — the fantasy of clean, modern politics led by a professional rather than a politician.
Negatives: From Visibility to Viability
However, Kishor’s appeal has limits. His padyatra gave him name recognition, but political organisation in Bihar is built through caste intermediaries, booth agents, and loyalty networks — areas where Jan Suraaj remains weak. In the 2024 bypolls, his party’s vote share varied between 5,000 and 37,000 votes per seat, enough to mark visibility but not to win.
Moreover, his “un-Bihari pitch” — stressing productivity over bakaiti (idle talk) — can sound elitist to rural voters accustomed to relational politics. Bihar’s democracy thrives on proximity and trust, not on managerial efficiency. While educated youth in towns may admire Kishor’s vision, admiration does not automatically translate into booth-level mobilisation.
There is also an ideological ambiguity in his campaign. By attacking both NDA and Mahagathbandhan as two faces of the same corrupt system, Kishor risks appearing directionless to voters seeking clear choices. His claim that Jan Suraaj will contest all 243 seats and win a majority appears overambitious and may reduce his credibility among pragmatists.
Fallout of Corruption Allegations
Kishor’s recent offensive against the NDA — especially his direct corruption charges against Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary and other BJP leaders — has electrified Bihar’s political discourse. By naming names, he has done what most opposition leaders hesitate to do. His challenge to investigative agencies to probe him first, if they have courage, has strengthened his image as a fearless reformer.
However, the fallout is twofold. Among the public, the move has reinforced his positioning as an anti-establishment figure, comparable to the early Arvind Kejriwal moment in Delhi. But among political players, it has burned bridges that could have otherwise helped him post-election. The NDA has closed ranks against him, branding him an “opportunist technocrat,” while some RJD leaders privately fear that his clean-governance rhetoric could resonate with urban youth who form their soft support base.
Vote-Splitting and Electoral Arithmetic
The central question is not whether Kishor will win but whose vote bank he will dent. His impact, even at a modest 5–7% vote share, could decisively alter outcomes in dozens of marginal seats. Impact on NDA: As a Brahmin, Kishor may nibble into the BJP’s upper-caste base and attract disillusioned non-Yadav OBCs who feel neglected under Nitish’s extended rule. His focus on corruption and unemployment challenges the NDA’s narrative of stability. Impact on Mahagathbandhan: Kishor’s attacks on “35 years of corrupt duopoly” directly undermine both Nitish and Lalu legacies. His appeal to educated youth overlaps with Tejashwi Yadav’s target constituency, potentially splitting the anti-NDA vote.
In the 2020 polls, the NDA’s victory margin over the Mahagathbandhan was less than 1% in vote share. In such a narrow field, even a small swing toward Jan Suraaj could upset the arithmetic on either side.
Kingmaker or Catalyst?
Can Prashant Kishor emerge as Bihar’s kingmaker? The answer depends on how narrowly the two main blocs perform. If Jan Suraaj secures 10–15 seats — an optimistic but not impossible scenario — Kishor could hold the balance of power in a hung assembly. However, Kishor himself has rejected the role of kingmaker, declaring that he will either “be in government or on the streets.”
Realistically, his greater influence may be indirect — forcing traditional parties to modernise their communication, transparency, and youth engagement strategies. Already, both RJD and BJP have begun mimicking Jan Suraaj’s digital style and civic outreach. Kishor’s campaign, therefore, acts as both disruptor and diagnostic tool, revealing how Bihar’s electorate is evolving beyond caste comfort zones.
Is He Damaging NDA or Mahagathbandhan?
At present, Kishor’s offensive appears to hurt both alliances differently. For the NDA, he erodes the moral legitimacy of Nitish Kumar’s leadership and targets BJP’s state machinery for corruption and arrogance. For the Mahagathbandhan, he siphons off aspirational youth and moderate voters who are open to reformist politics but distrust the RJD’s dynastic control.
In the aggregate, Jan Suraaj could play the role of spoiler, reducing vote margins and ensuring that no alliance secures a clear majority. This might ultimately aid the NDA, which benefits from a more cohesive vote base and better organisational machinery.
The Road Ahead
Bihar’s political history suggests that no wave lasts long without deep social roots. Lalu Prasad’s samman ki rajneeti (politics of dignity) endured because it reflected backward-caste assertion; Nitish Kumar’s vikas model succeeded because it combined welfare with administration. Kishor’s Jan Suraaj experiment must similarly embed itself in Bihar’s lived realities — caste, community, and culture — rather than relying solely on professional credibility.
What cannot be denied is that Kishor has changed the conversation. He has compelled parties to debate governance, employment, and integrity — issues that had receded behind caste coalitions. Whether he wins or not, Bihar’s 2025 election will be the first in decades where a third force, born from a citizen’s movement rather than a political dynasty, has captured public imagination.
Conclusion
Prashant Kishor’s relevance in the Bihar polls lies in his disruptive power, not necessarily his seat count. His positives — clean image, youth appeal, and data-driven strategy — are balanced by organisational weaknesses and the limits of technocratic politics in a deeply social landscape. His corruption allegations have enhanced his moral authority but isolated him politically.
In the end, Kishor may or may not become Bihar’s kingmaker, but he is undeniably its agenda-setter. By making integrity, governance, and youth empowerment the central issues of the 2025 election, he has already altered the state’s political narrative. Whether Bihar’s voters translate this moral curiosity into electoral support remains the ultimate test of how ready they are for a post-Mandal, post-dynasty politics.
(The writer is a senior political analyst and strategic affairs columnist based in Shimla)
