The inimitable Mamata Banerjee’s turbulent political life is at a pivotal juncture. Although opinion surveys indicate a comfortable lead over the BJP in the upcoming assembly polls, the outcome may be influenced by ‘X’ factors, such as her bizarre confrontation with the Enforcement Directorate last month and her contumacious encounter with the Election Commission of India earlier this week.
Political theatre and a controversial intervention
Banerjee’s volatility lends itself to political theatre, and several of her bravura exploits are the stuff of legend. But in her dramatic interruption of the ED’s raid on the consulting firm IPAC — founded by political strategist Prashant Kishore — Mamata Banerjee seems to have overplayed her hand. Getting news of the ED’s raid on the premises of IPAC director Pratik Jain, she first drove to his house and then to the company’s office, where she remained for several hours, removing documents and digital devices. For a Chief Minister to proactively interfere with a central regulatory agency, even on the grounds that she feared confidential data might be compromised, is odd, to say the least.
Supreme Court flags serious concerns
The Supreme Court has termed the episode “very serious” and expressed the fear that it might “lead to a situation of lawlessness”, with a cascading effect on other states. Besides, it might set a negative precedent. The crux of the matter seems to be whether the ED was acting lawfully in pursuing a genuine lead in a money-laundering investigation or was targeting privileged information pertaining to the TMC’s strategy in the upcoming legislative assembly elections, as Banerjee claims. Given that it is highly unlikely that ED officials, whatever the motive, would conduct a raid without legitimate grounds, Banerjee’s action is prima facie arbitrary.
Political fallout ahead of elections
With the assembly elections looming, the case acquires significance. Both sides will use it as leverage — the TMC to brand the BJP as fascist and the BJP to characterise the TMC as corrupt. To make matters worse, when the ED approached the High Court, chaos erupted at the first hearing and forced Justice Suvra Ghosh to walk out and postpone the matter. Meanwhile, the TMC’s plea for protection of “private and confidential political data” was dismissed, as the ED pointed out that it had not seized anything at all.
Baggage of scandals and violence
The perception of TMC cadres as violence-prone and corrupt is part of its baggage, which includes financial scandals, a poor record on gender crime, and a struggling economy. The Saradha ponzi scheme, running into thousands of crores, allegedly involved payoffs to politicians across parties. In the School Service Commission scam, which led to the arrest of a TMC minister and two legislators, the Chief Minister’s nephew and political heir, Abhishek Banerjee, was questioned.
Questions over women’s safety
As for women’s safety, the TMC government is seen as not having done enough. The rape and murder of a 31-year-old doctor while on duty at RG Kar Medical College and Hospital in 2024 led to month-long public protests. In 2025, alleged sexual assaults occurred in three other hospitals, while a student was allegedly gang-raped inside a Kolkata law college. In Sandeshkhali village in 2024, three ED officials were severely beaten up by supporters of TMC leader Sheikh Shahjahan, who was later arrested on suspicion of land grabbing and sexual abuse of multiple women over several years. Earlier, in 2014, when former TMC MP Tapas Pal egregiously threatened to revenge-rape the wives of political rivals, the Chief Minister did not respond, except to say, “What should I do, kill him?”
Economic decline and voter discontent
Banerjee’s biggest problem is her failure to script an economic turnaround. Both Odisha and Assam have overtaken West Bengal in terms of per capita income, which has declined relative to the rest of the country. The state’s share of the national GDP has shrunk, and in terms of growth, it lags behind the national average. For a state that accounted for 27 per cent of industrial production post-Independence, West Bengal’s decline has been steep: 17th in industrialisation, according to the Annual Survey of Industries, and 18th in per capita income, according to the Central Statistical Organisation, among Indian states. Its capital expenditure is among the lowest of the larger states. Small wonder that the youngest demographic among voters is least inclined towards the TMC, according to opinion surveys.
Popularity despite governance gaps
Despite an obvious governance gap and scandals involving aides, Mamata remains immensely popular, thanks partly to a vast array of subsidies for women, farmers and students. Equally important is her direct interface with voters; she tours relentlessly, speaking to people and addressing their grievances, often giving the concerned bureaucrats a dressing down in their hearing.
Mounting pressures and political risks
But her problems are mounting, with violence erupting in Murshidabad, in which several journalists were hurt. Meanwhile, the BJP’s formidable election machinery is already in action, highlighting sluggish infrastructure growth, lack of jobs, and poor performance vis-à-vis BJP-ruled states. The stress may be getting to Banerjee, judging from her characterisation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar as “so arrogant” and “such a liar” after an acrimonious meeting earlier this week. Her fears that her Muslim vote base might be eroded if the SIR weeds out immigrants may be justified, particularly in her south Bengal bastion, where border districts have seen a massive influx from across the border over the years.
A leader on multiple fronts
Currently, the embattled Chief Minister has too many fronts open. A streetfighter as well as a poet and an artist, her emotionalism plays well with voters. In her contrarianism and cultural pride, she is quintessentially Bengali. But she would do well to ensure that she does not fall foul of the courts by playing fast and loose with the rules.
Bhavdeep Kang is a senior journalist with 35 years of experience working with major newspapers and magazines. She is now an independent writer and author.
