The results of the civic body elections in Kerala amount to a severe drubbing for the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). From Vellarada at the southern tip of the state to Manjeshwaram in the north, the verdict is unmistakable: the LDF has lost the confidence and imagination of large sections of the electorate. The most telling symbol of this decline is the loss of the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation to the BJP. In many towns and villages, the LDF did not even emerge as the principal challenger; it finished a poor third, behind the BJP. This is a remarkable reversal for a coalition that once prided itself on deep grassroots penetration and ideological clarity. Anti-incumbency played its part, but it was compounded by a series of controversies that the government failed to convincingly address. Allegations relating to the theft of gold from Sabarimala and the perception of arrogance and unaccountability proved electorally expensive.
The clear winner is the United Democratic Front (UDF). A rare show of unity among its leaders, coupled with the Congress high command’s decision to allow local units to decide candidates, paid rich dividends. The UDF appeared focused, cohesive, and pragmatic—qualities that voters evidently rewarded. The BJP’s performance, however, needs to be viewed in perspective. It cannot claim sweeping gains across the state. It managed to retain Palakkad, that too without securing a clear majority, but lost Pandalam. More significantly, in the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency—represented by Union Minister Suresh Gopi—the party failed to make any impact. Yet, the BJP has emerged as the second-largest party in several constituencies. The notion that the BJP’s growth would come primarily at the expense of the UDF has been disproved. It is the LDF, more precisely the CPM, that has borne the brunt of the BJP’s rise. There is reason to believe that sections of the CPM’s traditional vote base, particularly among the Ezhava community, have gravitated towards the BJP.
These elections have virtually reduced Pinarayi Vijayan to the status of a caretaker chief minister. Still, it would be unrealistic to expect him to draw political lessons and make way for a more dynamic successor. More importantly, the results are a forewarning of what lies ahead. With Assembly elections less than a year away, the UDF appears poised to win between 90 and 100 seats in the 140-member House. A change of government is clearly on the horizon. The CPM has lost its long-claimed monopoly on keeping the BJP at bay. Its willingness to compromise on issues, such as the PM Shri scheme, has left a bitter taste among supporters who once believed it to be the principal ideological opponent of the BJP. The civic polls have spoken—and they speak of an impending political realignment in Kerala.
