Last week, Bengal witnessed two crucial by-elections for the Asansol Lok Sabha and Ballygunge Vidhan Sabha. The ruling Trinamool Congress, led by Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, swept both the seats as expected. Significantly, in the urban Ballygunge seat, the Left has appeared in the second position. But the Bharatiya Janata Party not only lost its seat in Asansol but also registered a steady decline in votes. This decline has started since the 2021 assembly elections. It exposes the disconnect between the saffron party and the people of Bengal.
Babul Supriyo, a BJP MP and former Union Minister of state joined the Trinamool Congress a few months ago. He also resigned as the Asansol MP. It necessitated a by-election in the Asansol Lok Sabha constituency. Subrata Mukherjee, a veteran TMC leader, and Bengal Cabinet Minister died in the meantime, leaving the Ballygunge Assembly seat vacant. The TMC decided to field Babul Supriyo from the Ballygunge seat, and the candidate of the party from Asansol was former BJP Bihar MP, actor turned politician, Shatrughan Sinha.
What Does The Number Say?
The Ballygunge assembly constituency is in South Kolkata. The BJP candidate in this seat, Keya Ghosh, came in third place with only 12.8% of the total vote polled. Last year, in the 2021 assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party came second in the Ballygunge constituency and received around 20.50% of the votes. This year, the party witnessed a 7% decrease in its vote share. Significantly, Babul Supriyo won the constituency with just 20,208 votes. Subrata Mukherjee won the 2021 assembly elections by a margin of 75,359 votes. The TMC this year witnessed a decline of around 20% in votes in the Ballygunge Vidhan Sabha constituency. The CPM candidate, Saira Shah Halim, received 30.1% of the vote from this constituency. The Left party received 5.51% of the total votes cast in the last election. This increase in the left’s vote share is indeed significant. However, the most significant defeat for the Bharatiya Janata Party happened in the Asansol Lok Sabha constituency. The BJP had won the constituency in the previous two Lok Sabha elections, but the TMC won it for the first time. TMC candidate Shatrughan Sinha won by a historic margin of 3,03,209 votes. The BJP, which received around 51.16% of the vote in the previous Lok Sabha election, only received 30% this time. The vote share of TMC improved from 35.19% to 56%.
Deplorable condition of the BJP's Bengal Unit
The organisational structure of the Bengal BJP is in shambles. Before the 2021 assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party took several senior TMC leaders into their fold. Following their defeat, most of these leaders returned to the TMC. Similarly, more than seven sitting BJP MLAs and some MPs have also left the party and joined the TMC. The state unit of the BJP is suffering from massive infighting. On one hand, the old guards of the saffron party continuously hit back at the leadership for giving prominence to the TMC turncoats. On the other hand, the TMC turncoats try to prove their dominance within the BJP. In this situation, the Bharatiya Janata Party is losing support in the state due to growing voter distrust.
Failure Of BJP To Counter TMC As Opposition Party
The BJP became the main and only opposition party in the 2021 assembly elections. However, the party has miserably failed to counter the ruling TMC as an opposition. The majority of their opposition to the TMC is optics, and there is no grand plan in place. The minorities of Bengal are increasingly facing violence due to the infighting in the TMC. The BJP is continuously failing to provide any space for minorities. The highhandedness of the BJP as the opposition is distancing people from the party. On every issue, the saffron party becomes dependent on the central leadership. For example, the central BJP leadership sent fact-finding teams with poor representation from the Bengal unit to survey the recently held outbreaks of violence in Bengal.
Left Revival And Divided Opposition
The BJP in Bengal is dependent on hardline Hindutva. There is also zero inclusivity within the party. The Left is giving its undivided attention to the restructuring of the party. Similarly, the CPM is trying to reclaim the liberal space for minorities and their traditional voter bases. A significant section of civil society and the urban voters who campaigned for #novotetoBJP before the 2021 elections campaigned against the TMC this time, saying #novoteto Babul. Political observers have pointed out that in the past civic and by-polls, the picture of divided opposition is becoming distinct. The opposition space will depend on the demography and geography of the constituency in the future.
BJP In Bengal Neither Has An Agenda Nor A Face
The BJP is increasingly getting distanced from the people of Bengal because they have no trusted face within the party. Similarly, since the 2021 elections, they have failed to raise any major issue against the TMC. The current BJP State President, Sukanta Majumdar, does not have any mass appeal. The former president, Dilip Ghosh had a mass appeal, but his unsolicited language sidelined him inside the party. Similarly, the infighting of the BJP has distanced the party from the RSS in Bengal. The BJP is on its own right now in Bengal.
Immediately after the announcement of the by-poll results, BJP Lok Sabha MP from Bishnupur, Saumitra Khan, said that the immature approach of the BJP leadership in Bengal led to this disaster. He also said that the party would need the help of the central leadership to revive its organisation. This statement is the real problem for the BJP in Bengal. The state leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party does not believe in their colleagues here and is dependent on the central leadership.
(The author is an independent journalist based in Kolkata and a former policy research fellow at the Delhi Assembly Research Center. Views expressed are entirely personal. He tweets at @sayantan_gh)
