With the Hindi heartland states in its kitty and having consolidated its position in the north-western as well as in the eastern and north-eastern regions, the BJP now has set its eyes on the southern states. Amid the renewed push to make inroads in southern India, BJP’s resolve to expand its political influence in the southern states can be seen in its four Rajya Sabha nominations from the south last week as well as in the political resolution adopted at the BJP’s national executive meeting in Hyderabad earlier this month. Not only do the four Rajaya Sabha nominations fit perfectly well in BJP’s Mission South, but the saffron party also sees Telangana, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and even Tamil Nadu as fertile territories for its electoral expansion.
So far, BJP hasn’t had much success in the south where the saffron party has till now led a government only in Karnataka and is a junior partner in the NDA government in Puducherry. But things could change over a longer period of time, with the BJP making all-out efforts to expand its footprint in the south where changing socio-political configurations might help it emerge as an important political actor. Lately, the BJP has made inroads in Telangana, as proved by its encouraging performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, 2020 by-polls and the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) election the same year. The GHMC election signalled a rapid BJP surge in Telangana.
With its eyes set on Telangana where it sees an opportunity, BJP held its high-powered national executive meeting in Hyderabad after a gap of 18 years; it was attended by the top BJP leadership, including the prime minister and chief ministers of the BJP-led states. This was the first physical meeting of the BJP’s key-decision-making body outside the national capital after a gap of five years and the third in a southern state after coming to power in 2014. The two-day meet culminated in a massive rally at Secunderabad’s Parade Grounds, sending out the message that BJP’s Mission South is well on track.
Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are currently under the sway of regional satraps and Kerala is under CPM-led rule. But all four of them are being eyed as electoral opportunities that have to be pursued vigorously. While at the national executive meet the BJP predictably targeted the Opposition, it was pretty evident that the real target was TRS and its chief K Chandrashekar Rao, given that it is Telangana where the BJP fancies its electoral chances in the immediate future, and where it has begun an ambitious campaign to capture power in the 2023 assembly election. It has also rolled out several programmes to increase its presence in the state, believing that electoral prospects in Telangana are brighter than in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh.
Stressing on its “double engine sarkar” slogan for all-round development, the BJP before its national executive meeting had put in place a strategy to drum up support for the party in all the 119 assembly constituencies. Sensing the winds of change, the national executive committee adopted an exclusive statement on Telangana, expressing deep concern over the “severe deterioration in economic, social and human development” in the state. “The degeneration over the last eight years was unparalleled and the responsibility lies squarely with the state government,” the BJP statement said, while describing the TRS government as a symbol of corrupt politics. In a scathing attack on the TRS as well as on the party’s first family, the statement said there was a brazen attempt to perpetuate a dynasty, and accused KCR’s family members of misuse of power.
Following perceptible growth in its popularity in the state, thanks to the growing political vacuum because of the Congress’ perennial decline and anti-incumbency building up against the ruling TRS from its two terms in office, the BJP contends that the time is ripe for it to rise to power. In the 2018 assembly poll, the BJP won only one seat but had a 7 per cent vote share. In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, it won four seats but its vote share went up significantly to 19.4 per cent. The GHMC election in 2020 witnessed a spectacular success for the BJP, which won 48 seats with its vote share jumping to 34.6 per cent. The GHMC serves nearly a third of the state’s population, a pointer to the expansion of the BJP’s organisational base at the grassroots level in Telangana.
While some factors are in the BJP’s favour and a bruising poll battle is expected to build up in Telangana, BJP also has reason to be wary. Like Mamata Banerjee’s TMC in West Bengal, KCR’s TRS is a formidable opponent, helmed by a veteran and astute leader who can cleverly use the native-versus-outsider card against the BJP. Lately, KCR, having unwittingly helped the BJP by weakening the Congress in two successive elections through mass defections, has been fiercely opposed to the BJP and is stoking anger over popular issues against it. KCR also has an impressive welfare delivery record. What also makes things difficult for BJP in Telangana is the fact that it lacks big state-level leaders to take on KCR.
With the saffron party putting the TRS on notice, the BJP-versus-KCR battle has shades of BJP-versus-Mamata. However, despite being in high spirits as it heads into the 2023 assembly election, the BJP is likely to face stiff challenge from KCR’s party. Ambitions apart, BJP’s big south push is a long-term agenda and making gains in the south is imperative for the party to compensate for the losses in the states where it currently holds sway. According to political analysts, ground realities suggest that apart from Karnataka and Telangana, the prospects of BJP making big strides in other southern states to come to power on its own will remain a distant dream for at least a decade or two.
The writer is an independent Mumbai-based senior journalist. He tweets at @ali_chougule
