NCP Supremo Sharad Pawar met Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi on Thursday at 10 Rajaji Marg, New Delhi. This meeting comes amid intense speculations over the last few days about an alleged rift between the MVA constituent parties in Maharashtra. The meeting also comes a day after Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and his deputy Tejashwi Yadav met Kharge and Gandhi in the national capital.
Significance of Sharad Pawar's meeting with Congress high command
Sharad Pawar arrived in Delhi at a time when there is an uncomfortable silence, along with strong speculations around what could transpire in the next few weeks in Maharashtra politics. Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar's recent comments on different important issues, contrasting the stand of opposition, only added fuel to the fire. As the SC's constitutional bench could declare verdict in Sena Vs Sena case anytime now, all political parties are preparing for various scenarios that could unfold. Things could go haywire if the SC upholds disqualification of 16 MLAs who fled with Shinde initially. In that situation, the current BJP-Shinde government would go into minority. Many in Maharashtra's political corridors whisper that Pawars are keeping their doors open if such situation arises. Hence, the recent comments. That, however, has a bleak possibility of happening, considering that the SC itself is unlikely to give any decision on disqualification of MLAs.
Pawar also meets Gandhi for the first time after the latter's comments on Savarkar had invoked a rather strong response from Pawar senior. The meeting puts an end to speculations about differences between the Congress and NCP. Sharad Pawar is enough experienced in politics to know that going with the BJP could prove fatal to his party and legacy. He has never actively allied with the BJP, except for the outside support he gave to the BJP government in 2014. But in case Shinde stays CM for the remaining one and half year, Pawar would keep up with the MVA allies and his 'secular' credentials.
Nitish Kumar- anchor to the opposition ship?
Bihar CM and his deputy met Kharge and Gandhi on Wednesday. The leaders, talking to reporters later, called the meeting 'historic'. They talked of bringing more like-minded parties together to fight the BJP in 2024. Nitish and Tejashwi also met Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal. Deserted by arrests of his close aides in corruption cases, Kejriwal is in need of a protective shield which the opposition can provide. However, this will mean putting on hold his national ambitions and assimilating with what could be termed as UPA-3.
Uniting opposition will be an uphill task for Kumar though. Bringing regional parties to table with Congress, who they fight politically in their respective states, would take dedicated efforts. Insiders say that Nitish Kumar will be given a 'big responsibility' in this regard. The announcement will be made once all parties agree on his appointment, they said. Looking at Nitish's past political decisions, it would be a gamble to entrust him with 'big responsibility'. But it's also a gamble the Congress-led Opposition is willing to take.
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Bihar (40) and Maharashtra (48) together send 88 MPs to Lok Sabha. In efforts of any political party or coalition to reach the 272-mark, these two states could play a significant role.
In Bihar, the BJP, Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP contested the 2019 Lok Sabha polls together. They won 39 out of 40 seats, a strike rate (97.5%) hard to repeat in any possible situation. With JD(U) being in the Opposition camp and the LJP weakened by factionalism, the BJP eyes an uphill task in coming any closer to the 2019 performance.
In Maharashtra, the BJP (23) and Shiv Sena (18) fought the 2019 Lok Sabha elections together. They won 41 out of 48 seats, with strike rate of over 85%. With the formation of MVA in state, followed by subsequent split in Shiv Sena, it is difficult to gauge how the people of the state would vote or how established vote shares would be divided. But the NDA, just like Bihar, is certainly does not appear in a position to repeat 2019 performance.
India on its way back into coalition era?
The BJP currently has 303 MPs in Lok Sabha. It does not require support from the NDA constituents to stay in power. However, not much of NDA is left now. With the Akali Dal, Shiv Sena and JD(U) walking out, only small parties are left to support the BJP. With 10 years of anti-incumbency, it will be nothing short of miracle if the BJP manages to get 303 seats on its own in 2024. If the saffron party falls short of numbers to reach 272, states like Bihar and Maharashtra would play a big role in deciding who will form the next government in centre. Even if the united opposition succeeds in eating into small section of the BJP votes in these states, it will reflect quite differently in end numbers.
We must not forget that the Congress formed the government in 2004, even when it had won only 145 Lok Sabha seats. If such situation arises, we could very well be re-entering the coalition era politics.
