The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has been known since its inception as the party run by Maratha leaders in the interest of the Maratha community and has had its base mainly in a few districts of Western Maharashtra that are dominated by the Maratha community.
After the unfortunate and tragic death of NCP president Ajit Pawar, the big question being raised in political circles is who will take over the legacy of the Pawars and control the Maratha voter base, which is quite significant in numbers in Western Maharashtra and Marathwada. It is becoming very clear that Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister and leader of Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde is now a contender for this space.
While Maharashtra's attention was focused on the aftermath of Ajit Pawar's sudden demise, the regional media was mainly focused on what was happening inside the NCP.
Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena seems to have moved swiftly in the Western Maharashtra districts of Satara, Sangli and Kolhapur to engineer some vote transfer in the district council polls from the NCP to the Shiv Sena, using the Maratha plank.
It is obvious that the Maratha community now is slightly confused about the future of the NCP. They seem to be in two minds whether to support the Congress party or to remain with the NCP, which is a divided force.
Talk of NCP unification stalls
What is now becoming very clear is that both the factions of the NCP were on the verge of getting united and becoming just one party as a constituent of the NDA government at the Centre and in Maharashtra.
Insiders say that it was almost finalised that Sharad Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule would be made a Minister of State in the Union Cabinet and Jayant Patil, former state president of Sharad Pawar’s NCP, would take over as Cabinet Minister in Maharashtra.
The announcement was supposed to happen on February 12, after the announcement of the district council poll results. But the sudden death of Ajit Pawar changed the entire equation.
NCP working president Praful Patel and the NCP Maharashtra president Sunil Tatkare would have had no problem if Ajit Pawar were to head the united NCP, but since the party would now be headed only by a member of the Pawar family, it has become obvious that the united NCP (in case it unites) would be headed again by Sharad Pawar and Supriya Sule.
Both Patel and Tatkare seem to be opposed to the idea of the party's control going back to Sharad Pawar, and hence they are now, since the last fortnight, opposing the unification of the two factions of the NCP.
The unification is now quite uncertain. There seem to be two points of view on both sides of the political divide. Within the BJP, there is a view, which the central leadership holds, that says both the factions should unite so that a united NCP with eight MPs in the Lok Sabha and 51 MLAs in Maharashtra can support the BJP-led NDA government.
But the state leadership in Maharashtra is opposed to the idea. It feels that such a move will strengthen the NCP, and it can then start commanding things in the state. Similarly, the two factions of the NCP hold different views. One faction is eager for the unification, while the other is opposed to it.
Shinde emerges as potential Maratha face
While the media's attention was focused mainly on the unification process inside the NCP, the other subject that was being discussed in Maharashtra's Western districts was about who will replace Ajit Pawar as the Maratha face in local politics. Suddenly, Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde has emerged as the answer to this question.
It was observed during the district council elections that Shinde was being portrayed by his supporters as the next Maratha icon in all districts of Western Maharashtra where the district council polls happened. Satara happens to be Eknath Shinde's home district.
The three districts adjacent to Satara are all Maratha strongholds—Pune, Kolhapur and Sangli. Huge hoardings on the highways and other roads were put up by Eknath Shinde supporters portraying Shinde as the next big Maratha face in Western Maharashtra—obviously a "replacement for Ajit Pawar".
Political vacuum and shifting equations
It is clear that there is a void left by Ajit Pawar's exit in Western Maharashtra in terms of a Maratha face ruling local politics. Shinde is showing the ambition to fill that void. The NCP seems to have been caught in a dilemma about whether they want to be in the opposition space or in the ruling party space.
The Congress party just does not seem to have the cadre to do the grassroots work. Given such a situation, Eknath Shinde seems to be taking full advantage to portray himself as the next big Maratha face in Ajit Pawar's absence in Western Maharashtra.
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.
