The heat is on. July 2023 was officially the hottest-ever month on planet Earth, probably in the last 120,000 years. In conjunction with the highest-recorded carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere and alarmingly high ocean temperatures, this adds up to a panic-making, possibly doomsday, scenario. At any rate, it should give participants at the global climate conference (COP 28) in Dubai later this year plenty to talk about.
That said, the credibility of the COPs, which is to say of governments and heads of state, in tackling climate change is fast fading. In three decades of trying, UN interventions and global cooperation have had limited success in halting emissions of “warming” greenhouse gases (GHGs). The UNEP State of the Climate map says it all: apart from the United Kingdom, every major economy is emitting as much or more than it did in 1990.
COP 27 was a bust and COP 28 is already contentious. The controversy centres around Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the UAE’s minister for industry and president-designate of COP 28. Why so? Because Al Jaber is also CEO of Adnoc, one of the top 10 fossil fuel companies in the world. And fossil fuels, as every school-going child knows, are the major source of atmospheric pollutants, and therefore the principal driver of global warming and climate change.
So, for the boss of a major fossil fuel company to preside over climate change talks is ironical, to say the least. Climate activists are understandably outraged. To cite one incensed green warrior, “It is the equivalent of appointing the CEO of a cigarette company to oversee a conference on cancer cures.”
Even as Al Jaber has been “greenwashing” his image by doing his bit for renewable energy, his company has been aggressively exploring the UAE’s undeveloped oil and gas potential. Last year, it announced the discovery of an additional 100 million barrels of oil in Abu Dhabi. Yet, heads of state, diplomats and ministers all over the world have welcomed the appointment of Al Jaber. Our very own External Affairs minister S Jaishankar tweeted his appreciation of Al Jaber’s “comprehensive experience of energy and climate change”!
When the great and the good gather in Dubai from Nov 30 to Dec 12 for the summit, chances are that climate change may be in evidence. Not in the form of high heat, but in unusually high rainfall. That’s because metereologists are predicting a moderate to strong El Nino effect later this year, and all the way up to February 2024.
El Nino is a climate pattern arising from high Pacific Ocean temperatures, which were significantly above normal this year. Research has shown that in El Nino years, precipitation in the UAE increases significantly. What else does El Nino do? It drives heatwaves. Cerberus, the hound of hell, stalked southern Europe this year — a metaphor coined by Italian Metereological Services for July’s intense heatwave. The US wasn’t much better off, with Phoenix in Arizona at 48 degrees, and 43 degrees plus for nearly three weeks. In China, Sanbao recorded 52.2 degrees.
India has not felt the effects of El Nino, which has been associated with droughts but is a bit of a wild card. In six of the 15 El Ninos over the last 70 years, India had a normal or above-normal monsoon, but in the last four, the shortfall was significant. Certainly, this February was the hottest on record, but rain has been plentiful despite the late onset of the monsoon. The Indian Metereological Department has warned, however, that the second half of the monsoon could be weaker. And there’s no telling what might happen next year.
With wildfires, heatwaves, glacial melt, extreme weather events, “hot tub” temperatures in the ocean and so on, climate scepticism is in full retreat. So why are nations failing to change a process that is clearly not working? According to a UN report, the world is currrently headed towards an 11% increase in emissions over 2019 levels by 2030. The Paris agreement of 2015 limits warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. As of now, this doesn’t seem likely — unless policies are drastically revamped to bring about a 43% decrease in GHG emissions from 2019 levels.
COP 28 promises to be the usual round of solemn head-shaking over foreboding statistics, of jousting and negotiating, of euphemisms and self-congratulation, of declarations of intent and demands for a level playing field. India may speak gravely of climate mitigation as exemplifying Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam – “we’re all in this together”. But every representative will keep a weather eye on the bottom line: how much will this cost me, or what can I get out of it?
Maybe it’s time to recognise that capitalism got us into this mess; it can’t get us out. Pushing for lower consumption — the only way to stem emissions — goes against the capitalist grain. Secondly, we must think in terms of a climate crisis. By definition, a crisis calls for action, notdebate. Meanwhile, July 6, 2023 has been dubbed as the hottest day ever. What’s even more alarming is that we may well look back on this year as comparatively “cool” a couple of decades down the line.
Bhavdeep Kang is a senior journalist with 35 years of experience in working with major newspapers and magazines. She is now an independent writer and author
