New Delhi: Pakistan contributes significantly to Delhi-NCR's air pollution through the cross-border movement of pollutants, particularly fine particulate matter (PM2.5), with crop-residue burning in Pakistani Punjab emerging as a seasonal source of concern. However, experts and scientific assessments indicate that this is only one part of a wider pollution crisis, with local and domestic emissions continuing to play a major role.
A 2026 report by the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), titled Beyond State Boundaries: Quantifying Interstate Air Pollution Transport and Sectoral Solutions in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, estimates that pollution originating in Pakistan accounts for nearly 33% of the National Capital Region's annual average PM2.5 concentration.
The findings highlight how air pollution travels across political boundaries, particularly across the Indo-Gangetic Plain, where atmospheric conditions and prevailing winds can carry emissions over long distances.
Pakistan Accounts For Nearly 33% Of NCR's Annual PM2.5 Pollution
According to the CSTEP report, transboundary pollution from Pakistan contributes nearly 33% to the NCR's annual average PM2.5 concentration, which was estimated at around 67.9 micrograms per cubic metre.
The report used atmospheric modelling techniques, including the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (WRF-CAMx), to assess how pollution moves across state and national boundaries.
The estimated contribution from Pakistan is around 40% in Indian Punjab. Meanwhile, local sources within the NCR account for approximately 28% of its annual average PM2.5 concentration.
Residential activities, including biomass burning for cooking and heating, are among the major local contributors, followed by emissions from industries, agriculture and transport. Pollution transported from other Indian states also adds to the region's overall burden.
The findings underline that Delhi-NCR's air quality cannot be understood through emissions within the national capital alone.
Pakistani Punjab's Crop Fires Raise Concerns As Delhi's AQI Deteriorates
The role of Pakistani emissions has come into focus again in November 2026, as Delhi's air quality deteriorates, with the Air Quality Index (AQI) entering the 'very poor' category and several monitoring stations recording readings above 400, classified as 'severe'.
Satellite data cited in media reports indicates a significant rise in crop-fire activity across Pakistani Punjab during October.
According to figures from NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), Pakistani Punjab recorded 13,241 crop-fire detections between October 1 and 29, 2026. In comparison, Indian Punjab recorded 3,158 detections during the same period.
The reported detections in Pakistan were therefore more than four times the number recorded in Indian Punjab. A substantial share of the activity reportedly occurred during the final week of October, particularly across the rice-growing belt around Lahore.
The figures have drawn attention to the potential contribution of Pakistani farm fires to pollution levels across the border. However, a higher number of fire detections does not automatically translate into a proportionately higher contribution to Delhi's pollution. The actual impact depends on the intensity and location of fires, the timing of emissions and prevailing atmospheric conditions.
How Does Pollution From Pakistan Reach Delhi-NCR?
The Indo-Gangetic Plain functions as a shared airshed, meaning pollutants released in one part of the region can travel across state and national boundaries.
During the post-monsoon and winter months, northwesterly winds can carry smoke and other pollutants from Pakistani Punjab towards Indian Punjab, Haryana and eventually Delhi-NCR, depending on wind direction and speed.
Crop-residue burning releases fine particulate matter and other pollutants into the atmosphere. When winds carry these emissions across the border, they can add to pollution levels in neighbouring regions.
Meteorological conditions can further worsen the situation. Low wind speeds, temperature inversions and reduced mixing heights limit the dispersal of pollutants, allowing them to accumulate closer to the ground.
These conditions are particularly common during the winter pollution season, when emissions from several sources combine with unfavourable weather to cause a sharp deterioration in air quality.
Pakistan Is Not The Only Contributor To Delhi's Air Pollution
While the CSTEP findings point to a measurable contribution from Pakistan, they do not suggest that cross-border pollution is the sole or dominant explanation for every episode of poor air quality in Delhi.
Local emissions from vehicles, industries, construction dust, residential fuel use and waste burning continue to contribute to the NCR's pollution burden. Emissions transported from other Indian states, particularly Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, also play a role.
Stubble burning in Indian Punjab and Haryana remains an important seasonal concern, although its contribution to Delhi's pollution varies depending on the number of fires, wind direction and weather conditions.
The relative contribution of different sources can change considerably from one day to another. Therefore, satellite fire counts alone cannot establish how much pollution from a particular region reaches Delhi.
The broader issue is also not limited to India. Cities such as Lahore face severe air pollution from a combination of agricultural burning, residential emissions, industrial activity and transport. The movement of pollutants across the Indo-Gangetic Plain can occur in both directions, depending on prevailing winds.
Why Regional Cooperation Is Important To Tackle Air Pollution
The findings reinforce the need for coordinated action across the Indo-Gangetic Plain rather than relying exclusively on measures taken within individual cities or states.
Experts and regional assessments have highlighted the importance of reducing emissions across sectors, improving crop-residue management, strengthening monitoring systems and developing shared pollution inventories.
Since pollutants can travel considerable distances, efforts confined to Delhi or the NCR may not be sufficient to achieve sustained improvements in air quality.
Pakistan's contribution, particularly during the crop-burning season, is an important part of the wider discussion. However, addressing Delhi's pollution requires simultaneous action on local emissions, sources across India and transboundary pollution.
The evidence points to a shared regional air-quality challenge in which no single source or country can be held responsible for the entire crisis.
