In the climax of France’s presidential campaign, centrist President Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen will meet Wednesday evening in a one-on-one television debate that could prove decisive before Sunday’s runoff vote.
Both candidates have carefully prepared for the highly scrutinized debate that’s expected to last more than two hours.
Macron, 44, emerged ahead from the April 10 first round and is leading in opinion polls with a margin varying between 3 and 13 percentage points. But Le Pen, 53, has significantly narrowed the gap compared to the last presidential election five years ago, when she lost with 34% of the vote to Macron’s 66%.
In 2017, a similar debate struck a decisive blow to her campaign.
Le Pen had looked hesitant, seeking answers from notes piled up in front of her, and appeared to lose her composure at some point. She also made basic mistakes on several economic topics — which Macron immediately pounced on.
Macron and Le Pen face off in a presidential run-off on April 24, which polls suggest will be a much tighter race than the contest Macron handily won against Le Pen five years ago. The two finalists will once again spar in a televised debate on Wednesday, with Le Pen hoping to erase memories of the embarrassing flop that ended her hopes of pulling off an upset in 2017.
Throughout the campaign, the far-right candidate has toned down her rhetoric and sought to convey an image of calm and composure. She is expected to play by the same rulebook during Wednesday’s debate, ditching the mercurial belligerence of five years ago in favour of a more “presidential” pitch.
Le Pen, who blamed her 2017 fiasco on fatigue, has cleared her schedule this week to prepare for the make-or-break debate. To avoid being unsettled, she has made sure she will not be facing the news anchor who has repeatedly rattled her in the past: Anne-Sophie Lapix, the star presenter for France’s main public broadcaster, France 2.
It helped that the incumbent president had no greater desire to face Lapix, whom he has studiously avoided throughout the campaign.
Some polls have projected a lead of about 10 points for Macron over Le Pen in the runoff, a repeat of the 2017 election. But undecided voters and abstentions could yet swing the figures.
Macron won the 2017 election with 66.1 percent of the vote, also against Le Pen, but the race is now much tighter with the president suffering from criticism of his management of the COVID crisis and economic policies.
Several polls have put Macron at the highest level since before the first round on April 10, widening the gap by an average of three points.
Ipsos on Tuesday put Macron winning 56.5 percent of the vote in the runoff against 44 to 47 percent for Le Pen.
The stakes in the election are high with Europe watching to see if Macron wins another five years in office to work as a champion of the European Union, which Le Pen has promised to reform under a far-right presidency.
Le Pen, the head of Rassemblement National (National Rally), has notably toned down her approach to the EU at this election.
In 2017, her manifesto promised a referendum on EU membership, following six months of talks to try to radically reform the bloc.
But she made no mention of the EU at all in this year's election manifesto, entitled '22 measures for France'.
Unlike the UK, France was a founding member of what eventually became the European Union and is now its second largest financial backer.
Marine Le Pen wants to slash France's contributions to the EU, tighten border controls and hold a referendum on stopping "uncontrolled" immigration.
Macron is likely to seek to portray her as a dangerous politician who cannot be trusted on foreign policy – especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine given her past comments of admiration towards President Vladimir Putin.
Le Pen is expected to appeal to those who have anti-Macron feelings, criticize his record and present her nationalist, anti-immigration stance as an alternative. She also aims at demonstrating that she has the stature of a potential president, and at promoting what she says are realistic proposals.
Macron, meanwhile, will advocate his pro-European views as the way to make France stronger in the world. He will seek to convince leftist voters that his pro-business stance shouldn’t deter them from choosing him.
In recent days, he acknowledged some would back him only to counter the far-right candidate.
“I want to convince women and men with diverse political points of view,” Macron said.
While Macron is a staunch defender of the EU and recently reinforced France’s participation in NATO operations in Eastern Europe, Le Pen says France should keep its distance from international alliances and strike its own path.
She favors pulling France out of NATO’s military command, which would take French military staff out of the body that plans operations and lead to the country losing influence within the Western military alliance.
France withdrew from NATO’s command structure in 1966, when French President Charles de Gaulle wanted to distance his country from the U.S.-dominated organization, and reintegrated under conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy in 2009.
