The political developments in Maharashtra today are likely to create more troubles for Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, as we carefully analyse the unfolding events in the state over the past year.
Shind had criticised Pawar for not allocating funds to Shiv Sena ministers
Almost a year after Shinde staged a rebellion against the then DCM Ajit Pawar, the wheel has turned full circle. On 30th June 2022, Shinde took oath as the Chief Minister of Maharashtra. Today, on 2nd July 2023, Ajit Pawar was sworn in as his deputy. At first glance, it may seem that Shinde has the upper hand. However, the fact that Shinde had previously criticised Pawar for allegedly not allocating sufficient funds to Shiv Sena ministers will certainly come back to haunt him.
Shinde's MLAs still wait for cabinet opportunity
Furthermore, the issue goes beyond Shinde himself. The group of nearly 50 MLAs that broke away from the previous government along with him is still awaiting their share of power. Speculations about cabinet expansion have been circulating for nearly four months now. Their hopes were boosted after the Supreme Court verdict in favour of the Shinde faction. However, with the entry of the third partner in the alliance, Shiv Sena under Shinde will have a much smaller space, making it a challenging task for him to appease all the members who supported him a year ago.
Another aspect of the conflict between Shiv Sena under Shinde and NCP under Ajit Pawar is their status as political rivals in many areas. When the state had two alliances, BJP-Shiv Sena versus Congress-NCP, BJP generally fought against Congress, while Shiv Sena took on NCP. This can be seen as national parties competing against each other and regional parties competing against each other. Essentially, they were vying for the same political space. It was easier for them to compete as opponents, but it won't be the same within the same alliance.
Aditi gets cabinet birth
This can be observed clearly in Raigad district. Bharat Gogawale, a devoted follower of Shinde whose appointment as the party's chief whip was cancelled by the Supreme Court, was expecting a ministerial position in the cabinet expansion. However, instead of him, Aditi, the daughter of his political opponent Sunil Tatkare, has been inducted into the cabinet. Gogawale had actively worked on building his constituency, removing officers who favoured Tatkare, and winning over grassroots workers in the area. Both his efforts will face a setback with the current political developments. Similar situations can be seen elsewhere as well.
Alliance of compulsions
Today's developments also highlight the political compulsions faced by all the parties. The BJP leadership is primarily concerned with retaining power at the centre and requires a maximum number of Lok Sabha MPs from the state. "That won't be possible unless the 'ED gang' within NCP defects and joins the government," predicted a senior Congress leader in the state. For Ajit Pawar and others who joined the government today, it is a matter of their political survival. They believe that the BJP's desperation to retain power at the centre will force the government to take tough action against them. "None of them wants to go to jail at this old age," said an NCP leader. Shinde and the members of Shiv Sena face a more direct threat, as the decision to disqualify them lies in the hands of the assembly Speaker, who is a BJP member.
Hence, the new alliance that emerged today can be seen as an "alliance of compulsions" which will undoubtedly create more troubles for CM Shinde.
