India to report 99% coronavirus cases by mid-July, predicts Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalaya

Study shows MP will check the virus comparatively faster

ATUL GAUTAMUpdated: Monday, May 25, 2020, 12:22 AM IST
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Coronavirus | AFP

Indore: With more than 1.35 lakh infections so far, Covid-19 pandemic - which is currently playing havoc in the country - is soon going to see decline in new cases and life will be inching back to normal by mid-July.

In case of Madhya Pradesh, the situation is going to improve comparatively faster. The state and country will report 99 per cent of expected coronavirus infections by second and third July of respectively.

These forecasts have been made by the School of Data Science and Forecasting, a teaching department of Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalaya, on the basis of its study.

The study, conducted Rakesh Vishvakarma under the supervision of Prof VB Gupta, revealed that the country, which is currently witnessing nearly 6,500 cases daily, still have to see peak.

“The spike is still to come. It may come by the end of May or first week of June. However, after that, the cases will start dropping significantly in the country. On July 5, the country will see 97 per cent of its total coronavirus cases. And by July 18, the number will be 99 per cent,” Gupta said.

Explaining further, he stated that the study is based on SIR (Susceptible, Infectious and Recovered) model. The observed cases per day are used to fit the model and estimation of the parameters used in the model.

For instance, he further explains, if 100 people are susceptible to be infected by the virus in the country and 40 of them have already being infected then the remaining 60 are still going to be infected in days to come. Of these, remaining 60 people will be the new cases and 57 of them are going to be infected by July 5. The number will be 59 by July 18. In other words, 99 people out of 100 will be infected by July 18. If we convert the figures into percentage, then one per cent people will still remain to be infected.

For Madhya Pradesh, the study revealed that the state has already witnessed the peak of Covid-19 cases. “The cases in the state are on the decline now. On June 29, the number will see 97 per cent of its total coronavirus cases. By July 11, the number of new cases to be reported will be reduced to one per cent,” Gupta forecasted.

He stated that they collected figures of coronavirus patients till May 23, 2020 from across the country and drew graphs. Using SIR models, we made a forecast for Covid pandemic. “The same we did for Madhya Pradesh,” he said.

Gupta said that his team will now focus on Indore and Bhopal. “We are studying the coronavirus model of Indore and Bhopal. On the basis of study, we will soon make a forecast for both the cities,” he added.

IN THE COUNTRY

*The study says if 100 people are susceptible to be infected by the virus in the country and 40 of them have already being infected then the remaining 60 are still going to be infected in days to come.

*Of these, remaining 60 people will be the new cases and 57 of them are going to be infected by July 5. The number will be 59 by July 18.

*In other words, 99 people out of 100 will be infected by July 18. If we convert the figures into percentage, then one per cent people will still remain to be infected.

IN MADHYA PRADESH

*For Madhya Pradesh, the study revealed that the state has already witnessed the peak of Covid-19 cases.

*The cases in the state are on the decline now.

*On June 29, the number will see 97 per cent of its total coronavirus cases.

*By July 11, the number of new cases to be reported will be reduced to one per cent.

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