Indore: Indore, which is among the top-10 worst-hit cities in the country due to coronavirus pandemic, is going to report 99 per cent of its total estimated cases till July 7.
Besides, Bhopal which is second most affected city in Madhya Pradesh after Indore, is also going to see 99 per cent of its Covid-19 cases by July 7.
These are the forecasts made by School of Data Science and Forecasting, a teaching department of Devi Ahilya Vishwavidyalaya, on the basis of its study.
After study on Covid-10 for the country and Madhya Pradesh, the DAVV on Thursday released its research for Indore and Bhopal, which are reeling under severe coronavirus attack.
With more than 3,200 infections so far, the state’s commercial capital is seeing no sign of relief with around new 70+ positive cases coming to fore every day for past one week.
The city has so far also seen around 120 deaths due to Covid-19 and efforts of district administration and civic authorities to contain the pandemic seems to be yielding no results.
As far as Bhopal is concerned, it has seen nearly 1,450 coronavirus and over 51 deaths so far.
The study, conducted Rakesh Vishvakarma under the supervision of Prof VB Gupta, gives a ray of hope to both the cities. According to the study both the cities have already seen peak of Covid-19 cases and now the graph is shooting down.
“Indore will see 97 per cent of its total estimated coronavirus cases by June 24 while Bhopal will report 97 per cent of cases by June 25. In both cities 99 percent of the cases will be reported by July 7. Remaining one per cent of the cases will be reported later,” Gupta said.
Gupta stated that the study is based on SIR (Susceptible, Infectious and Recovered) model. The observed cases per day are used to fit the model and estimation of the parameters used in the model.
For instance, he explains, if 100 people are susceptible to be infected by virus in Indore and 60 of them have already being infected then the remaining 40 are still going to be infected in days to come. Of these remaining 40 people will be the new cases and 37 of them are going to be infected by June 28. The number will be 39 by July 7. In other words, 99 people out of 100 will be infected by July 7. If we convert the figures into percentage, then one per cent people will still remain to be infected.
He stated that they collected figures of coronavirus patients till May 27 from across Indore and Bhopal and drew graphs. “Using SIR models, we made forecasts for both the cities,” he added.
Actual number of cases may be higher
The data science models are developed and entire scenarios of current wave of COVID in both cities were developed and analysed.
The study is based on reported cases on a given date that does not show the actual number of new cases on that day due to several factors including delay in reporting. Actual number of new COVID cases is likely to be higher than the reported cases due to limited testing.
