Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections had presented a sharply divided picture, but early counting trends appear to validate some projections, particularly those predicting a strong performance by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
According to compiled exit poll data, agencies such as Today’s Chanakya and Chanakya Strategies had forecast a decisive edge for the BJP. Today’s Chanakya projected the BJP winning between 181 and 203 seats, while Chanakya Strategies estimated 150–160 seats for the party. Matrize and PMARQ also gave the BJP a clear lead, predicting 146–161 seats.
In contrast, agencies like Peoples Pulse projected a victory for the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), estimating 177–187 seats for the ruling party. VoteVibe and JVC suggested a close contest, with slight advantages varying between the BJP and TMC. The “Poll of Polls” average indicated a tight race, placing the BJP between 137–157 seats and TMC between 131–151 seats.
As counting trends emerged around 11:30 AM, the BJP appeared to outperform most projections, leading in approximately 183 seats, well past the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly. The TMC was trailing with around 98 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC) failed to open its account, and others secured just a handful of seats.
These trends closely align with the more bullish BJP projections made by Today’s Chanakya, while significantly diverging from surveys that predicted a TMC victory. The outcome suggests that pollsters who anticipated a strong BJP surge were more accurate in capturing the electoral mood.
The results also highlight the challenges of exit polling in a politically complex state like West Bengal, where voter behaviour can be difficult to gauge. With high voter turnout and intense political competition, even minor swings in vote share appear to have translated into major seat gains.
As counting continues, the BJP looks set to end the TMC’s long-standing dominance in the state, marking a significant political shift. The final results will determine which pollsters came closest, but early trends indicate that projections favouring the BJP have largely held true.
