Mumbai: Geopolitical analyst and academic Professor Jiang Xueqin triggered a debate online after suggesting that if any country were to use nuclear weapons first in a future conflict, Pakistan would be the most likely candidate, citing what he described as the country's internal instability and weak institutional controls. The remarks have sparked worrisome signs for India as we share the border with the nation and also strained relations.
Speaking on entrepreneur and YouTuber Raj Shamani's podcast, Jiang stressed that he believes the chances of nuclear weapons being used during our lifetimes are 'almost zero', pointing to what he called a global taboo against nuclear warfare. "I personally do not believe that nuclear weapons will be used in our lifetimes ever because there's a universal taboo against nuclear weapons," Jiang said during the discussion.
However, when asked which country might be most likely to use nuclear weapons first if such a scenario were to arise, Jiang named Pakistan, while also briefly mentioning India as part of a potential India-Pakistan conflict scenario.
'Weak, Disorganised Nation With Nuclear Weapons': Jiang On Pakistan
Explaining his assessment, Jiang argued that Pakistan's political and institutional vulnerabilities make it a higher-risk nuclear power. "Pakistan is a very weak, disorganised nation with nuclear weapons. Its control systems may not be in place to restrain itself in an emergency," he said.
The analyst further described Pakistan as a country facing challenges such as political divisions, economic difficulties and corruption, adding that any potential nuclear-use scenario would most likely emerge from a conflict between India and Pakistan.
India’s No-First-Use Policy Mentioned
During the conversation, Jiang contrasted Pakistan's position with India's long-standing nuclear doctrine. He noted that India has traditionally maintained a No First Use (NFU) policy, under which it pledges not to initiate a nuclear strike. According to Jiang, India possesses sufficient conventional military capabilities and therefore does not face the same strategic pressures as Pakistan.
"India has this approach and philosophy that we never use first," he said. Jiang also argued that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is viewed by its military establishment as a deterrent against India's larger conventional forces.
'Almost Zero Chance' Of Nuclear War
Despite his comments, Jiang repeatedly emphasised that he considers the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used extremely low. He argued that any nation initiating a nuclear strike would face severe international consequences and likely retaliation, making such a decision highly improbable.
