The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned on Wednesday that ongoing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific could intensify to unprecedented levels in the coming months, pushing ocean temperatures to record highs and triggering severe climate disruptions worldwide.
According to the WMO’s latest seasonal climate outlook, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, where El Niño develops, could rise to as much as 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027.
The projected increase would far exceed the 0.5°C sea surface temperature anomaly threshold used to identify El Niño conditions.
“This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026, but its impacts will reverberate across the globe long after that.”
El Niño Could Become One Of Strongest Events On Record
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It develops when weakening trade winds allow warm Pacific Ocean waters to shift eastward, disrupting atmospheric circulation and influencing weather patterns worldwide.
With global temperatures continuing to rise and ocean heat reaching record levels in 2026, meteorologists warn that the developing El Niño could become one of the strongest events recorded since systematic monitoring began in 1950.
The unusually high sea surface temperatures could amplify existing climate extremes, with consequences extending well beyond the Pacific region.
India Among Regions Facing Increased Drought Risk
Climate models suggest that the projected warming could significantly alter rainfall patterns across several continents.
Parts of the Indian subcontinent, Central America and northern South America face an increased risk of severe dry conditions and prolonged droughts, potentially threatening agricultural production, food supplies and water availability.
In contrast, southeastern South America, the Horn of Africa and parts of North America could experience heavier rainfall and localised flooding as warmer conditions increase atmospheric moisture.
Southeast Asia Faces Heat, Wildfire And Water Shortage Threats
According to the WMO, higher temperatures combined with below-average rainfall could increase heat exposure and place additional pressure on agriculture and water resources.
The conditions could also heighten the risk of wildfires and smoke haze, particularly across Southeast Asia, where some of these trends are already becoming evident.
Such weather extremes could further strain vulnerable communities and affect agricultural productivity.
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Marine Ecosystems At Risk As Agencies Urged To Prepare
The WMO also warned that rising sea surface temperatures could place significant stress on marine ecosystems, intensifying widespread coral bleaching and disrupting fisheries.
International meteorological agencies and humanitarian organisations have been urged to activate early-warning systems to prepare for the potential consequences.
The effects of the developing El Niño on agriculture, water resources and socioeconomic conditions could continue into early 2027, even after the event reaches its projected peak towards the end of 2026.
