Thiruvananthapuram: The Congress-led UDF appears poised to make significant gains in Kerala, according to a pre-poll survey released ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.
The survey, conducted by Poll Mantra with a sample size of 26,000 respondents, indicates that the UDF is leading the electoral race with 38.2 per cent vote share, followed by the ruling LDF at 33.7 per cent and the BJP-led NDA at 20.4 per cent. Nearly 8 per cent voters remain undecided, a segment that could prove crucial in determining the final outcome.
UDF Leadership Race and CM Face Preferences
Within the UDF fold, VD Satheesan leads the race for the CM face with 29.5 per cent support, closely followed by KC Venugopal at 28.2 per cent and Shashi Tharoor at 23.4 per cent. Within the LDF, Chief Minister Vijayan leads the internal preference with 38.2 per cent, facing a strong challenge from KK Shailaja (32.5 per cent).
Among political influencers polled at the state and national level, 46.8 per cent backed Venugopal as the most likely chief ministerial face, surpassing incumbent Pinarayi Vijayan who secured 27.9 per cent support.
Venugopal’s Cross-Demographic Appeal
The survey also reveals that Venugopal enjoys significant cross-demographic appeal. He leads among Christian voters with 33.2 per cent support and performs strongly among Muslim voters at 29.5 per cent. Among younger voters in the 18-35 age group, Venugopal leads with 33.9 per cent preference, indicating growing traction among first-time and young voters.
National Leaders and Voting Influence
When it comes to national influence on voting decisions, Rahul Gandhi leads among Kerala voters with 44.2 per cent citing him as the most influential leader, followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at 19.5 per cent and Vijayan at 16.8 per cent. Venugopal is cited by 12.4 per cent respondents as a key national influencer.
Voter Assessment of LDF Government Performance
The LDF government faces a challenging assessment from voters, with 31 per cent rating its performance as "very poor" and 20.9 per cent as "poor." Only 23.8 per cent rated the government's performance as "excellent," while 10.7 per cent said it was "good."
Development Trust Index Favours UDF
On the development trust index, the Congress party (UDF) leads with 38.9 per cent respondents expressing confidence in its ability to deliver development, compared to 27.8 per cent for CPM (LDF) and 23.1 per cent for BJP (NDA).
CM Preference Within LDF
Within the LDF camp, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan continues to dominate with 38.2 per cent support among alliance supporters as the preferred chief ministerial face, followed by former health minister KK Shailaja at 32.5 per cent. Shailaja, however, leads among women voters with 35.9 per cent support compared to Vijayan's 36.1 per cent, and enjoys strong backing from the Ezhava community at 38.1 per cent.
NDA’s Chief Ministerial Choice
In the NDA camp, former union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar has emerged as the clear favourite with 52.1 per cent support among alliance supporters for the chief ministerial post, far ahead of state BJP president K. Surendran at 22.4 per cent.
Influencers’ Views in Other States
The survey also polled influencers on expected chief ministers in other states. In Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma leads with 61.5 per cent, while in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee is the overwhelming favourite at 58.6 per cent. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin leads with 62.4 per cent support among influencers.
Survey Methodology
The survey was conducted among 26,000 respondents across Kerala with detailed demographic breakdowns by gender, age group, and caste/community.
