Karnataka will today decide who will rule the state for the next five years. This may also turn out to be the defining moment of the 2024 general elections.
The counting at the EVMs will begin at 8 am and by 9 am a broad picture would emerge as to which way the state is going. While more than half of the Exit Polls have predicted a fractured verdict, the two national parties – the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress – have exuded confidence that they will get a majority. The regional outfit, the Janata Dal (Secular), which is expected to play the role of a kingmaker in case of a hung Assembly, has declared that they are willing to support ‘anyone,’ provided ‘all’ their demands are met.
JD(S) party's stand on coalition after the results
The BJP and Congress have started talking to the JD(S) – something they said they would never do during the heated campaigning. “Yes, the two political parties are in touch with us, but we would support any party that would meet all our demands. We are going to get over 50 seats this time,” said JD(S) chief and former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy who is now eyeing the chief minister’s post.
While 50 seats may be a tall order, anything around 40 seats in a hung assembly will see the JD(S) negotiating for the chief minister’s post.
The chances of both BJP and Congress accepting Kumaraswamy as CM are high as each is desperate to keep the other out of the next government. In the past, Kumaraswamy became CM twice using the same tactic.
What if JD(S) joins hands with Congress?
If Congress and JD(S) join hands, the regional outfit will not accept either Siddaramaiah or DK Shivakumar as CM. Siddaramaiah and the Gowda family do not see eye-to-eye. The party will also oppose DKS, a Vokkaliga, since he may prove politically detrimental for JD(S), considering Vokkaligas are its core votebank.
“In such a scenario, names like G Parameshwara, HK Patil, and RV Deshpande may crop up for the post, provided all of them win,” a senior JD(S) leader was quoted in the media.
Sources said “the JD(S) will definitely make a serious attempt to stop Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar from becoming CM.”
What if JD(S) joins hands with BJP?
If BJP and JD(S) decide to align, the possibility of JD(S) opposing Bommai as CM may not be as tenable as that of opposing Siddaramaiah and DKS. However, the party may demand someone pliable and politically light for the CM’s post.
If the JD(S) gets below 25 seats, the BJP and the Congress are likely to pounce on the regional party in an effort to snatch MLAs to form a government. Aware of this possibility, the JD(S) has asked all its winning candidates to immediately rush to Bengaluru.
The Congress and the BJP have chalked the best-case and worst-case scenarios. However, the Congress sounded confident of winning a majority on its own in the 224 member Assembly.
Congress confident about their win
Congress leader Randeep Surjewala on Friday told the media with an air of smugness that the BJP had 'accepted defeat' and thanked crores of voters for stepping out and exercising their franchise on polling day (Wednesday).
"I want to thank the 6.5 crore people of Karnataka who have voted for the Congress. Let us wait till tomorrow... till the results are out. BJP has admitted its defeat," he said.
Asked about the possibility of a post-poll deal with the JD(S), a repeat of the 2018 post-poll scenario, an alliance that ended in disaster a year later when it was unseated by rebel MPs and the BJP, Surjewala said: "Let them go wherever they want to go. I am confident about the Congress forming the government with a decent majority."
Surjewala and senior Congress leaders from Delhi are in touch with all the candidates and have asked the winners to rush to Bengaluru without fail, fearing that the BJP may unleash its ‘Operation Lotus’ plan in trying to poach the winners.
BJP sensing setback
Surprisingly, the BJP has been quiet, almost giving the impression that the party has started sensing a setback. Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is expected to come to Bengaluru only after the trends start coming in.
However, BJP sources said that the silence in the BJP camp should not be interpreted as a setback. “We are confident of an outright win and our think tank is busy charting out the future course,” said a senior leader.
