New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that July 2026 will be drier than usual, with rainfall across the country expected to be 94% of the long-period average (LPA), dismissing hopes of any major relief after a bruising June that was the fifth-driest in 125 years. The forecast has raised concerns about the impact on agriculture and water availability.
IMD also warned that above-normal temperatures are likely across large parts of the country, raising concerns over additional stress on crops during the crucial kharif sowing season.
With more than half of India's kharif farmland dependent entirely on rainfall, delays in sowing have already been reported in several states, according to government data.
“Below-normal rainfall is likely across most parts of the country except some areas of northwest and northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said in a statement.
IMD has predicted rain across the country during the first seven to 10 days of the month.
June among driest on record
July is typically India's wettest month, contributing 280.4 mm of rainfall, or about 32% of the southwest monsoon's seasonal average of 870 mm, based on the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) 1971–2020 long-period average (LPA).
In comparison, June normally records 165.3 mm, accounting for nearly 19% of the monsoon total. This year, however, June received only 99.5 mm of rainfall, 40% below the LPA, making it the fifth-driest June since 1901 and the driest since 2014, when the country recorded 92.8 mm. The driest June on record remains 2009, with just 87.6 mm of rainfall.
Reasons for rainfall deficit
IMD attributed the June shortfall to various factors: the absence of low-pressure systems that draw in rain; the emergence of the rain-crimping El Niño in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean; an unfavourable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is a moving system of wind, cloud and pressure that brings rain as it circles the equator; and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which refers to the difference in temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
A positive IOD, when the western Indian Ocean is warmer, feeds monsoon clouds with rain.
