Bihar chief minister and JD (U) president Nitish Kumar is poised to jump on the NDA bandwagon again by quitting the grand alliance for the second time, switching sides for the fourth time in over a decade.
BJP which had closed its doors for him till sometime back has also mellowed down its approach and is no longer averse to the idea of re-inducting him into the NDA in a hope that his appeal among non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs and SCs would pay it rich dividends to him in the Lok Sabha election.
Race on for numbers game
However, as Nitish prepares for another switch, both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan are scrambling to woo MLAs from each other's factions in order to secure the numbers game.
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Before delving into the arithmetic of government formation, here are the current numbers of MLAs from each party in the assembly:
RJD: 79
BJP: 76
JD(U): 45
CONGRESS: 19
LEFT PARTIES: 16
HAM (S): 4
AIMIM: 1
IND: 1
BSP: 1
LJP: 1
RJD hunts for 8 MLAs
In the scenario where Nitish Kumar withdraws the JD(U) from the ruling coalition, the RJD would require an additional eight MLAs to reach the 122-mark, securing its position as the predominant force in the state assembly.
Sources indicate that four independent MLAs previously aligned with former Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, along with one legislator from AIMIM and another independent MLA, may unite with the RJD.
There's widespread speculation about the possibility of either appointing Jitan Ram Manjhi as the CM or his son as the deputy CM in exchange for their support to the RJD.
The Mahagathbandhan currently holds 114 MLAs (comprising 79 from RJD, 19 from Congress, and 16 from the Left). Even with the inclusion of HAM, AIMIM, and independent MLAs, the total stands at 120, falling 2 short of the majority mark.
To bridge this gap, reports suggest that the RJD is attempting to sway JD(U) MLAs. Reports have cited discontent among several JD(U) legislators over Nitish's alliance with the BJP.
JD(U)-BJP ahead in numbers game
With BJP (76) already having support from the HAM (4) and LJP (1), the addition of JD(U)'s 45 MLAs takes the tally to 126, which takes the NDA comfortable cross the majority mark with 4 MLAs extra.
With the BJP (76) already enjoying support from the HAM (4) and LJP (1), the inclusion of JD(U)'s 45 MLAs brings the tally to 126, comfortably crossing the majority mark within the NDA, with an excess of 4 MLAs.
However, Nitish Kumar is reportedly apprehensive about Lalu Yadav's efforts to divide his MLAs to assert a claim for forming the government. This concern has prompted him to advocate for the dissolution of the assembly.
On the flip side, both the JD(U) and BJP are actively pursuing the defection of several MLAs from both the RJD and Congress camps to bolster their numbers in the event of a tight majority vote on the floor.
Congress' role in focus amidst turmoil
Amidst this, reports have emerged that the mobile phones of 13 Congress legislators are not reachable at the moment. Sources reveal that several Congress MLAs are in contact with the BJP and JD(U). Additionally, sources suggest that Congress might now resort to using Sonia Gandhi as a trump card to persuade Nitish Kumar. It's reported that Sonia might engage in a phone conversation with Nitish Kumar.
However, Congress has dismissed the news of legislators' defection as baseless. Congress spokesperson Shakeel Ahmad Khan has categorically refuted the claim of a rift among Congress MLAs. He stated, "Our legislators are standing firm with the party, united like a rock. The news of defection among Congress MLAs is as unfounded as the sun rising in the west."
According to Congress sources, Bihar Congress in-charge Mohan Prakash has so far spoken to 14 party legislators, and no legislator is leaving the party. The party has summoned all its legislators to Purnia, where a caucus of legislators will be held. Meanwhile, amid changing political circumstances in Bihar, the proposed rally in Purnia may be canceled.
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