Lucknow: The alliance of Chandrashekhar Azad with Asaduddin Owaisi gives the Nagina MP a statewide platform ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. It also puts his party’s fledgling Dalit base under pressure. The BJP, Mayawati’s BSP and Akhilesh Yadav’s SP are courting Dalit voters, while the new front must persuade voters seeking a change of government that it can win.
The Azad Samaj Party (Kanshiram) and AIMIM announced the Samajik Parivartan Morcha on Thursday, saying it would contest all 403 seats. Owaisi named Azad its chief ministerial face, and Azad invited the SP and Congress to join forces against the BJP.
Rivals court Dalits
Azad defeated the BJP’s Om Kumar in Nagina by 1,51,473 votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, with the SP finishing third. That victory gives him a base in western Uttar Pradesh. Holding it while expanding elsewhere will be harder with three established parties competing for many of the same voters.
The BJP is courting Dalits through initiatives including a Rs 403-crore scheme to develop sites with Ambedkar statues. Mayawati has revived the BSP’s bhaichara committees to rebuild links between Dalits and Muslims. Akhilesh is seeking to bring more Dalits into his PDA coalition of backward classes, Dalits and minorities.
The tactical vote
Many Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh have rallied behind the strongest opposition challenger to the BJP. Lokniti-CSDS post-poll estimates put Muslim support for the SP-led alliance at 79 percent in the 2022 Assembly election. AIMIM polled 0.49 percent statewide and won none of the roughly 95 seats it contested. Where the SP looks better placed in 2027, that calculation could limit what Owaisi brings to Azad.
An SP spokesperson alleged that Owaisi had an understanding with the BJP. Azad rejected the ‘B team’ charge, and Owaisi said the alliance aimed to prevent a third consecutive BJP term. In a close race, the Morcha could still benefit the BJP if it draws more votes from the ruling party’s nearest challenger.
Council signals, Bihar lessons
October’s Legislative Council results showed where the BJP faces pressure. It won six of 11 seats, while the SP gained two to reach five and wrested Lucknow Graduates from the BJP. Those contests involved registered graduates and teachers. The Assembly election will test sentiment towards the Yogi Adityanath government across a much wider electorate.
Bihar showed how uneven the returns from the partnership can be. In 2025, AIMIM won five seats while Azad’s party lost all 18 it contested. In Uttar Pradesh, where the Morcha fields a credible challenger, Azad could broaden his base. Where it struggles, even some Dalit voters who backed his rise may choose a rival they see as better placed to defeat the BJP.
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