With cricket being a way of life in the subcontinent, and cricketers having superstar status across the region, Prof. Dr Subrat Sarangi, an Associate Professor at MICA along with RK Renin Singh, from Shanti Business School in a research titled ‘Winning one-day international cricket matches and predictability’ explored aspects of the sport that throw up not only interesting numbers but conclusions as well.
The study, which has been published in an international academic journal: Journal for Business Analytics, analysed 9000 cricket matches across four countries.
What does the research focus upon?
The research focuses on one of the most popular cricket formats - One Day Internationals and analyses the predictors of a win for four leading international cricket teams that account for a major share of viewership for the sport i.e., Australia, England, India, and Pakistan.
The information spans from these nations' first-ever official ODI games through the most recent ICC World Cup, which took place in July 2019. A total of 926 matches for India (from July 13th, 1974 to July 9th, 2019), 849 matches for Pakistan (from February 11th, 1973 to July 5th, 2019), and 852 matches for Australia (from January 5th, 1971 to July 11th, 2019) were taken into consideration. 3424 matches out of 8384 matches in total, or 40.84 percent of the universe, were included in the data set. In order to build the framework for analysis, data was collected for every single match separately variable by variable.
The research, which aims to assist coaches, team management, cricket administrators, sponsors, and even those involved in legal gambling to make appropriate decisions about the four major cricketing nations as a decision support system, found that all four countries see a different set of correlation between their batting, bowling, and fielding prowess which can lead to their victories.
How the four teams see different paths to victory
For the Australian team, for example, the research found that having more bowlers with a particular economy rate and strong fielding performances boosts the likelihood of victory by 8%. When the Australian team gives up extra runs, in contrast, the chances of victory decrease by 7% while everything else stays the same. When fielding dismissals are frequent and hitters hit more fours, the side's chance of victory is at its highest at 60 percent and 55 percent respectively.
The English team, on the other hand, according to the research, depends more on the opponents' batting performance, the number of debutants playing for the opposition, and the type of pitches. As a result, the coaching staff and selection committee of the opposing club continue to place significance on bowling and fielding while batting takes a back seat.
Now when it comes to the arch-rivals on and off the field, India, and Pakistan, the differences are stark. India has a probability of winning of 75% when more bowlers bowl economically and 60% when fielding performance results in a high percentage of dismissals. Though when opposition bowlers are economical and produce more fielding dismissals, the likelihood of winning lowers to 33 percent and 36 percent, respectively. When India plays on fields outside the subcontinent as opposed to in India, the country's predicted win probability is only 32%. With a higher emphasis on player fitness and fielding instruction, efficient bowling and on-field dismissals through catches, stumping, and run-outs are essential for a high victory probability.
When it comes to neighbouring Pakistan, the use of debutants in the matches makes them lose more games, however, hitters who smash home runs increase their chances of winning. Dismissals caused by economical bowling and fielding are crucial, although matches are more adversely affected by opposition teams with more economical bowling units. The team performs better in the spring and fall than in the summer, according to the research.
Dr. Subrat Sarangi, Associate Professor, MICA Ahmedabad
What the man behind the research has to say
“Cricket has a huge amount of following and viewership in these four countries in particular, which is why they are the crux of the research. The money, fame, and media circulation that cricket brings has also played a factor in choosing the sport as a research topic,” said Prof Dr. Subrat Sarangi who also emphasised the fact that sports like Basketball, Ice Hockey, etc. have usually been the ones that have seen this kind of research compared to Cricket, thus making this step one of a kind.
“We talked to ex and current cricket players, sent across the research to them, and got their views on it, which have been generally positive,” added Prof.Sarangi, who said that including more countries such as South Africa, Sri Lanka, etc, size of the stadiums, mental capacity are other factors that can be explored in this research which can lead to more interesting findings.
Prof. Sarangi is also in the process of publishing another research on the national contributions of individual cricket players about their financial earnings. “I will be employing different methods for this research. It is often a long process to get an article published but this research can open up more theories and findings that readers will like,” added Prof. Sarangi.
