Washington, D.C.: A major decision is expected today from the U.S. Supreme Court on former President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff strategy. The court will decide if Trump had the legal authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose high tariffs, and whether importers should now be refunded. The ruling could affect global trade, U.S. finances, and the power of the presidency.
What’s at Stake?
This case centers around two big questions: Did Trump’s administration use IEEPA law correctly to impose tariffs? And if not, will the U.S. government have to return the money collected from importers?
Experts believe the court won’t give a total yes or no. Instead, it may allow limited powers under IEEPA while restricting full refunds. Around USD 2.1 trillion (Rs 17.55 lakh crore) is tied up in this case, making it a high-stakes verdict for the U.S. economy.
What the Government Thinks
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said he expects a mixed outcome from the court. According to him, tariff collection will continue, and the administration isn’t worried. The bigger concern is whether this decision will weaken presidential powers in national security and trade negotiations.
Bessent added that even if the court limits IEEPA use, other laws like the 1962 Trade Act could still support many of the tariffs. However, if refunds are ordered, it may pressure the U.S. budget and deficit plans.
How Much Revenue Is Involved
The U.S. earned USD 195 billion from tariffs in FY25 and has already collected USD 62 billion in FY26. Losing this income would hit federal revenues hard. That’s why this case is being watched closely on Wall Street and beyond.
Markets and Analysts React
According to economist Jose Torres from Interactive Brokers, even if the court removes some tariffs, Trump’s team will find other legal tools. Prediction market Kalshi estimates only a 28% chance of a clear win for Trump. CNBC reports that the White House likely has backup plans ready.
Surprisingly, tariffs have not led to inflation, and the U.S. trade deficit recently hit its lowest level since 2009, against analyst predictions.
What Could Happen Next
There are three likely outcomes: limited presidential power to continue tariffs, partial refund orders, or a suggestion to simplify the tariff structure. Regardless of the verdict, the ripple effects will reach U.S. trade, inflation, global markets, and even Indian investors.
