Markets end marginally lower in a volatile week but undertone still remains bullish, say experts

The Nifty50 index started the week on a positive note and traded higher initially for three trading sessions. After that, we witnessed further correction on the account of the weekly expiry and mixed global cues. Finally, the benchmark index settled at 15,689.80 levels with a marginal loss of 0.21 percent while the Bank Nifty ended at 35,071.95 with 0.75 percent gains on a weekly basis.

Sectoral indices like Nifty Realty gained by 6 percent and metal climbed 3 percent whereas, Nifty Auto and PSU bank dragged lower by 2.2 percent on a weekly basis. The top weekly gainers were Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, Hindalco and IndusInd Bank--those who have supported the index for a week. Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, TCS and Tech Mahindra were the prime laggards.

The Volatility Index VIX gained more than 7 percent in a week to close at 12.96 levels. Options data suggests a broader range of 15,600 to 16,000 levels for the upcoming week.

Technically, the index has tested support at the horizontal line and given closing above the line, which points out further bounce-back. Moreover, the Index has formed a Doji Candlestick pattern on the daily chart, which indicates indecisiveness between bulls and bears.

On an hourly chart, the Index has taken support from 200-HMA as well as RSI has bounced from the oversold zone, which suggests upside movement in the coming days. At present, the Nifty seems to have resistance at 15,860 while major resistance is intact at 15,920 levels, whereas immediate support comes at 15,600/15,550 levels.

TATA MOTORS

The stock closed on a flat note at 306.3 in the Friday session and also shifted below the 15-day Moving Average, indicating a weak trend. The stochastic has given a negative crossover after a major fall in the stock and is expected to soon give a positive crossover on the upside in the upcoming trading sessions. The ADX has closed at 27 levels on the daily chart, indicating a good volatile session for traders. The stock has also closed below the Pivot Points and shall test the Pivot support at 290/285 levels. On the downside, support is at 285 levels while resistance comes at 325 levels.

TCS

TCS has closed below the 21-day Moving Average, which indicates a weak trend for the near term. However, the convergence line of the stochastic is about to give a crossover on the upside, which indicates strength for the near term. The stock is still trading above the Ichimoku clouds, which suggests good support in the counter. Moreover, the stock has also tested immediate support at Lower Bollinger Band formation and 50-days SMA, which confirms the further pullback in the upcoming session. On the downside, support comes at 3160 while resistance is shifted at 3300 levels.

BAJAJ AUTO

BAJAJ-AUTO has closed below the 15-day Moving Average indicating weakness for the near term. The stochastic indicator has given a crossover on the downside, which indicates a negative bias in the trend. The Money Flow Index is also pointing downwards, which suggests a negative side for the stock. The super trend indicator is also indicating a downward move. The stock has the support of 3970 and resistance of 4270. Overall, the stock looks weak for the near term.

RELIANCE

On the daily chart, the stock has given a breakdown of the Bearish Flag pattern and closed at 2071.20 levels. The stock has also slipped below 50-days SMA, which suggests a downward move in the counter. A momentum indicator RSI (14) & MACD also indicated negative crossover, which confirms the bearish trend for the upcoming days. So based on the above technical structure, we are expecting downward moves in Reliance Ind. for the near term. On the downside, the support is at 2040 levels while resistance comes at 2,155 levels.

TechM

At the start of the week, the TECHM has formed a Bearish Candlestick pattern; after that, we witnessed further correction in the price. On a weekly basis, it has slipped more than 3 percent to close at 1051.75 levels. However, on a daily chart, the stock has taken support at Lower Bollinger Band formation and 50- days SMA, which indicates limited downside in the counter. A momentum indicator RSI has shifted below 50 marks and MACD indicated negative crossover. On the downside, support is at 1010 levels while resistance comes at 1095/1110 levels.

Indusland bank

On the daily chart, the Induslnd bank has been trading in a bullish trend and also forming a Cup & Handle formation, which indicates positive strength in the near future. In addition, the RSI indicator has been taking support of 60 levels, which confirms a bullish trend in the near future. Moreover, the price has also taken support of the 21 EMA & 61.8 percent Fibonacci Retracement level, which confirms the continued bullish trend. Hence, we are recommending long in Indusind Bank for the upcoming days.


Tata Steel

On the daily chart, Tata steel has been rising continuously in a bullish trend with Higher Highs and Higher Lows formation from the last couple of days. In addition, the price has given a breakout of the Bullish Pennant pattern, which confirms the continued bullish trend. Moreover, the RSI indicator has also sustained above 60 levels, which shows a bullish presence in the near term. Furthermore, the directional indicator ADX is also supportive for the upside momentum. Hence, we are recommending long in Tata steel for the target of 1,320.

Bajaj Finserv

On the daily chart, BAJAJFINSERV has been rising continuously in a bullish trend with Higher Highs and Higher Lows formation from the last couple of days. In addition, the price has closed above the Upper Bollinger Band formation, which suggests an upward move in the counter. Moreover, the RSI indicator & MACD are supporting the upward trend, which confirms a bullish rally for the near term. The support lies at 12,300 while the resistance lies at 12,920 levels. Overall, the stock has a strong bullish trend for the long term.

HINDALCO

On a daily Chart, the stock has formed a Bullish Marabozu Candlestick pattern with the support of a horizontal line which indicates an upside movement in the counter. Furthermore, the stock has been sustaining above the falling trendline, which suggests upside movement. On an hourly chart, the stock has been trading with a positive crossover of 21*50 Hourly Moving Average which can be considered a Bullish Crossover which shows a Bullish movement in the counter. On an hourly chart, The True Strength Indicator has given a positive crossover on the upside where it is indicating good strength for the stock to have a movement on the upside. For upcoming days the stock has good support at 360 while resistance comes at 410, crossing above the same can show upside movement.

ULTRA TECH

On a weekly basis, the stock has been consolidating near to a life-time high. Crossing above the same can show a good upside rally. Moreover, the stock has given a breakout of the rising trendline and sustained above the same can show strength in the counter. On a daily chart, the stock has been trading with a positive crossover of 21*50 Days Moving Average, which suggests a bullish movement in the counter. Momentum indicator Stochastic, K percent is trading above D percent, which points out strength in the counter. On an hourly chart, the stock has been trading in a pennant pattern, crossing above the neckline can suggest a northward journey in the counter. For upcoming days, the stock is looking bullish and having support at 6,600 while it is trading near a lifetime high.

(The writer is Executive Director, Choice Broking)

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