New Delhi, [India] August 16: India could reach a $20 trillion economy by 2036 if it can raise underlying rupee growth to around 14.2 per cent and achieve sustained annual rupee appreciation of about 3-3.6 per cent, according to a research report by domestic brokerage firm Equirus that lays out a 20-step reform agenda.
Equirus estimated that these measures could lift India's growth trajectory while strengthening the external balance, creating the conditions required for the ambitious dollar-denominated target.
India has already accelerated sharply, taking 67 years from independence to build its first $2 trillion of GDP before nearly doubling the economy in the decade after 2014. Reaching $20 trillion from the current base of about $3.7 trillion, however, would require the economy to expand roughly 5.5 times and sustain nominal dollar growth of around 18 per cent annually, well above its historical 10-11 per cent trend.
Services seen driving growth
The brokerage noted that the composition of growth will be as important as its pace, with services expected to become the principal engine of expansion. Services currently account for about 54 per cent of GDP and would need to rise beyond 65 per cent, expanding from roughly $2 trillion to more than $11 trillion. Manufacturing is seen as constrained by a more protectionist global environment, while agriculture's share is expected to decline as urbanisation accelerates.
Reforms span multiple sectors
The proposed reforms span the real economy, capital markets, human capital, services and urban governance. They include bringing fuel under GST, enforcing state capital-expenditure floors, listing the Railways, creating an Indian sovereign fund, expanding private education capacity, reviving private-sector R&D, deepening corporate bond markets and reducing tax-related working-capital frictions. The report estimates that abolishing advance tax could release around Rs 10 trillion of working capital, while a flat 5 per cent TDS could unlock another Rs 13.4 trillion.
GCCs and tourism offer boost
Services-focused reforms could provide a further growth boost. A National GCC policy aimed at increasing the number of global capability centres from 1,800-plus to 5,000 could generate a $470-600 billion economic impact and create 20-25 million jobs. Tourism promotion, meanwhile, could potentially add about $21 billion annually in foreign exchange receipts.
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Execution key to target
The brokerage estimates the reform package would generate about Rs 7.9 trillion in annual direct gains against costs of roughly Rs 3.4 trillion, implying a net gain of Rs 4.5 trillion. It concludes that achieving the $20 trillion milestone will ultimately depend on execution across multiple fronts rather than any single policy lever.
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