As I write this column there is a standstill in the formation of a new government to run Maharashtra. Assembly elections are over and the list of newly returned members is also ready with the election commission. However, three days after the election results were declared, the Governor of the state, Bhagat Singh Koshyari has not yet invited anyone to form the new Government. Koshyari is perhaps going slow as neither of the major players in the ring has yet come forward to stake the claim for power.
This is partly because the electorate of Maharashtra has delivered a fractured mandate in the elections held on October 21. No single party has reached the magic figure of 145 that is required
to establish a clear majority in the 288-member House. The Bharatiya Janata Party that has emerged as the largest single party with 105 seats has also fallen short by 40 seats to reach the majority mark.
The wrangle that is being witnessed in the state, if not solved within a week, the Governor will have no other option but to invite Devendra Fadnavis to form the government with a proviso to establish his majority within the next seven days. This situation would become inevitable as the term of the present Assembly ends on 10th November. And if the state is to be saved from being brought under President's rule once again, the new Government will have to be in place before that. It means the political system will have to gear up and make up its mind about the new rulers of the state as early as possible.
Together they would stand
Actually, the BJP and the Shiv Sena, its junior partner in power, had formed an alliance and shared seats to contest before the elections. They were partners in power from 2014 to 2019 when Fadnavis was ruling the state as a coalition Chief Minister. While the BJP came out with 105 seats the Shiv Sena registered 56. The aggregate total of the two easily surpasses the minimum required number of 145. However, immediately after the results the Sena publicly demanded equal share in seats and the progress of formation of the government came to a grinding halt. Talks have been taking place at an informal level but the Sena Party Chief Uddhav Thackeray and his close lieutenants seem to have stuck to their guns and continue to demand equal share in power. Moreover, they want an undertaking from the BJP in writing.
The question is what the Sena means by 'equal share'. Apart from equal number of berths in the cabinet, the Sena is also asking to share the prime post of Chief Minister 50:50. It means both parties should have the Chief Minister for half of the five-year term. This is obviously not acceptable to the BJP. Fadnavis very categorically mentioned that the new government of the coalition would be under the 'leadership' of the BJP.
This is not acceptable to the Sena. This was sounded by most of the newly elected party legislators at their meeting at Matoshri, the private residence of Uddhavji. Party's firebrand leader Pratap Sarnaik while talking to the waiting media went to the extent of demanding a written assurance from the BJP to accept this arrangement.
Surely the BJP high command would not like to bow to such pressure tactics. While in Haryana the party allowed its junior partner JJP the post of Deputy Chief Minister, it would not blink in case of the Sena unless it is made impossible for the party.
Even if the BJP does not muster support of more than 145 members, the Governor can and will invite Fadnavis to form a 'minority government' with a condition to prove its majority on the floor of the Assembly within a stipulated period. It means with or without the support of the Sena, Fadnavis can have the second term in office.
BJP's additional strength
Going by figures, the BJP having its own 105 members has apparently already received about 20 MLAs, who contested as minority party candidates or as rebel independents, e.g. three members of Hitendra Thakur's BVP, two of PWP and a few others will have no hesitation in entering the ruling
BJP camp, if they get their due. The rest strength of about 20 would be a problem that needs to besorted. However, going by floor-managementskills available with the ruling side, this problem can be solved. At least the BJP big-wigs think so.
It only means that both the Sena and the BJP are waging a war of nerves. Both the partners gathered lesser support than in 2014. However, the ego of both seems to have further inflated. It now remains to be seen if in case neither blink before the swearing ceremony, will the 'minority' government of the BJP last long?
There are two vivid possibilities. The BJP would offer the post of Deputy Chief Minister to the Sena and the latter would accept it as it has the ready candidate (Aaditya Thackeray, or another player,
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), under the leadership of Sharad Pawar (with the strength of 54) is always waiting in the wings to enter the centre stage.
The writer is a political analyst and former Member of Parliament (RS).
