Earlier, they would coalesce as often as they would come apart driven by anti-Congressism. Now, the glue that temporarily holds together various fragments of the erstwhile Janata Dal is anti-BJPism. Not unlike the earlier unions, this time too, a purely negative agenda could prove the undoing of the newly-formed outfit. Six parties, namely the JD (S) of H D Deve Gowda, the JD (U) of Sharad Yadav, the RJD of Lalu Prasad, the INLD of Om Prakash Chauthala, the Samajwadi Janata Party of Kamal Morarka and the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav announced the merger on Wednesday. But the name, symbol, flag, policies and organisational structure of the new party would be announced later, indicating clearly that the merger was a rush job, aimed at dissuading one or more of these parties from straying into the arms of the BJP. Indeed, days before the merger, there were reports that Nitish Kumar, the beleaguered Bihar Chief Minister, was beginning to have second thoughts about the wisdom of his precipitate decision to break with the BJP on the question of Narendra Modi’s leadership. That caused panic, inducing them to hurriedly announce the merger without a formal agreement on the leadership of the new entity. Since Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party is the biggest among the six parties that announced the merger on Wednesday, it is most likely that he would get to formally head the new party. But the real challenge would come in Bihar, where Lalu Prasad Yadav is unlikely to play second fiddle to his one-time bête noire Nitish Kumar. The Bihar Chief Minister has lost face following his decision to sup with Yadav, whom not long ago, he had criticised in the strongest possible terms. Besides, Kumar and Yadav would have problems apportioning seats between them for the coming Assembly elections later this year. Regardless of their stated commitment to defeat BJP, both can be expected to fight for each seat at the time of ticket distribution. Given that the merged entity would face its first big test in Bihar later this year, the chemistry between foes-turned-allies would crucially determine the future of the new party. In other states, the merger of the six parties can only have a marginal impact because each one of them has its exclusive sphere of influence in its own home state. For instance, Chautala’s INLD has no presence outside Haryana, while Deve Gowda is a non-entity outside Karnataka. Also, none of the leaders of the Janata Parivar have nationwide influence. The two Yadavs, or, for that matter, Kumar and Deve Gowda, are not big draws outside their own home states. In short, the merger will have the effect of bringing together on one platform a gaggle of leaders without much accretion in their collective strength on the ground.
Old-timers would recall how various offshoots of the once united Socialist Party founded by the charismatic Dr Ram Manohar Lohia would merge and de-merge at regular intervals, for no particular reason other than the inability of their leaders to adjust their egos to the needs of a united party. Since the time of Dr Lohia in the ’60s and the ’70s, the socialist movement has further suffered sharp erosion due to the ideological bankruptcy of its adherents and their corrupt ways. Today, both the Yadavs are steeped deep in a culture of corruption and criminality. So, instead of sinking together, each leader prefers to sink separately. Therefore, the fate of the new party, still without a name, flag and a symbol, cannot be any different from the earlier experiments at unity of such one-man outfits, though the BJP should wish it well if for no other reason than the fact that its success can only result in the further erosion of the Congress Party. Politics is not a zero sum game. Sometimes one plus one in politics can mean zero and not two.
