Many of the leaders who sat together to ponder over an anti-BJP front in Patna on Friday, June 23, represented political parties that split out of the Congress about half a century ago.
This time, these leaders look at the Congress as an ally in what they consider their struggle against a bigger foe – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), rather the face of it – Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
After all, there is the adage that goes “enemy of my enemy is my friend”. And there’s another that says “politics makes strange bedfellows”.
The Janata experiment of the seventies too had brought the socialists, communists, and some rightists together to oust Indira Gandhi. So, why not the experiment again, the leaders may argue.
The solidarity needs to reflect among Opposition ranks across states when the country goes to polls next year. And that is what we intend to do, the leaders may again argue.
Regional equations
In the current Lok Sabha, the total strength of the political parties that congregated in Patna would muster just about a quarter of the total seats. However, the turn in political fortunes in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka has boosted Opposition morale. Earlier, the thumping return of Trinamool Congress in West Bengal in 2021, and the new coalition government in Bihar had brought hopes of a non-BJP platform floating back in Opposition camps.
Meanwhile, the AAP also rose in prominence. It won Punjab and is said to have strengthened itself in Haryana. Though it oozed confidence in Himachal Pradesh, it failed to make a mark in the assembly polls.
Also, the return of Congress in Karnataka meant that states along the eastern coast to the south had all but rejected the BJP. This coastline, with seven states – from West Bengal to Karnataka – sends 192 MPs to the Lok Sabha. The BJP won 55 of these seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
It needs to be mentioned, however, that the parties in power in two of these states prefer to remain “equidistant” from both the BJP and Congress. The Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha won 21 seats in the state against the BJP’s eight. But it mostly keeps itself away from Opposition conclaves.
Similarly, the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh, led by Jagan Mohan Reddy, treads the same line and is unlikely to join the Opposition ranks. It won all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state in the last elections.
So, around 50 seats in these regions may be out of the non-BJP front’s domain. Instead, the grouping may expect some dozen-odd seats more from Bihar and West Bengal together to come their way if all goes well for them.
Moreover, the Congress sees rays of hope emanating from Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan this time where the BJP cornered 62 out of a total of 65 seats in 2019.
Maharashtra too, according to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), stands to give hope to the Opposition with the breaking of the Shiv Sena in recent times. In 2019 the BJP won half (23) of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats.
MVA was formed after the 2019 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly election. It comprises the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction), NCP, and Congress; with support of the Samajwadi Party, PWPI, CPI(M) and several other political parties including Independent MLAs.
It has also to be seen what the mandate comes from Jammu and Kashmir since the change in status and the reorganisation. But the BJP is confident that its chances in Jammu will offset any untoward mandate the Valley may return.
Political ambitions
Incidentally, certain leaders present in the meeting consider that an “understanding” may possibly be reached only after election results are announced. Though they are reflecting optimism at the moment, they confide the apprehension that comes over political ambitions. Regional satraps may not be ready to cede ground to a rival, or the Congress.
Before the Patna meet, a poster that the JD(U) shared featured its leader and the convenor of the Patna meeting, Nitish Kumar, prominently in the middle with other participants around him. The illustration released initially missed its major ally, the RJD – with neither supremo Laloo Prasad nor his son and Bihar’s deputy chief minister, Tejaswi Yadv featuring anywhere.
While a section dismissed it as faux pas, another attributed it to turf war. On the other hand, the AAP made it clear that it will not be a part of the Opposition juggernaut if the Congress fails to denounce an ordinance passed by the Centre. The other participating parties were said to have already spoken against it, which AAP claimed, was promulgated in Delhi to take control of governance away from the elected government.
Ambitions may also come in the way of Nitish Kumar’s call for a “one-on-one” contest against the BJP. Regional parties would all want to grab as many seats as possible to have a dominant voice in an alliance. Thus, chances of sharing seats among regional rivals look distant.
For example, the TMC would not want to give seats to the Congress or the Left in West Bengal. Similarly, the Congress is expected to face protests from the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and from the Left parties in Kerala. Though in the last case, an alliance may not be needed at all since the BJP lacks strength in the state.
Such differences are expected in other places as well wherever regional interests are at stake.
But now, these leaders are exhibiting confidence to work out a formula before the Lok Sabha elections. After all, it is a question of survival. And all of them know the cost of getting lost in the wilderness.
So, all eyes will now be on the relatively cooler climes of Shimla, where a framework of an alliance has been assured sometime in July. The modalities of a new front are said to be on its way to be laid out on the drawing board.
Time, as they say, will tell us more on yet another venture at unity.
