The Lok Sabha poll is too long, too stretched out for anyone’s comfort. At the end of the poll, the Election Commission should take the initiative to explore the possibility of compressing it in a few short weeks in consultation with various stake-holders. We cannot have the country come to a virtual standstill for nearly two months as polling is spread out in six or seven phases
. Do consider that with the proclamation of the poll schedule the model code of conduct enjoins upon all governments, central and states, to cease taking policy decisions. Millions of employees drawn from various central and state governments are deployed on poll duty. This further adds to the disruption.
We are certain if the EC puts its mind to the problem a national consensus can be found to complete the poll within, say, a month. Which again is a far cry from the days when country-wide polling was held in under a week. An extended poll diverts national attention from all other concerns.
The disruption impacts all sectors of human endeavour and ought to be curtailed. Meanwhile, with the polling for the fourth round completed on Monday, we are past the half-way mark in electing a new Parliament. The remaining three rounds will mostly witness a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. It is crucial for the BJP to do well in these rounds if it is to come close to its tally in the 2014 poll.
On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi has far more at stake, given that the Congress had barely won a dozen seats in the key Hindi heartland states in the last poll. After the Assembly elections last year in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, if the Congress fails to significantly improve its Lok Sabha tally in these States it would not only pay put to the task of Congress revival.
Worse, it could make the party governments in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh as also in Karnataka vulnerable. It is an unwritten law of Indian politics that politicians have fragile loyalties and tend to flock to the winning side. Since the three governments have a wafer-thin majority, desertions by a handful of legislators could upset the Congress applecart. Already, rumblings of discontent in the Karnataka coalition pepper the news reports.
Meanwhile, psephologists who lament that they discern no wave, in favour or against, in this election only advertise the shortcomings of their craft. In which election, if any, did they predict the outcome correctly? Yes, broad trends can be discerned after extensively touring the country. However predicting the outcome correctly is still a hit and miss game since psephology is an uncertain science, if at all. Remember how in the home of Gallup, Donald Trump mocked all pollsters.
So, to infer from virtually the same level of turnout thus far as in the last election that the voter is unenthusiastic about all parties is wrong. Indeed, the same percentage of polling in the first few rounds suggests that there is no anti-incumbency and the voter is more likely to endorse the Modi Sarkar rather than give it a thumbs-down. In 2014, anti-incumbency against the scam-ridden UPA had further fuelled the campaign of the Modi-led BJP.
Notably, even then nobody had anticipated Modi winning a clear majority on his own. Pundits discovered a wave only after the votes were counted and the outcome was known. Besides, expecting a polling percentage higher than in 2014 in the absence of popular anger against the incumbent regime, or alternatively, admiration for a new alternative, is unrealistic. The writing is on the wall.
Aside from the post-Balkot boost for the BJP, the lack of a leader who fits the bill for the prime minister’s job is working to the advantage of the ruling party. The 2014 poll registered an increase of eight percent increase in polling over the 2009 poll. Voter anger against various corruption scams of the Manmohan Singh government combined with the positive perception of the then Gujarat Chief Minister to make more people trek to the polling booths.
The fact that the same percentage have voted in this election, though more than a crore of new voters have been registered in the last five years, signals trouble for the anti-Modi forces. All evidence suggests that the young voter overwhelmingly supports Modi, especially after Balakot. And national security has pushed other concerns in the background.
