Finally the election dates have been announced for the Bihar Assembly, and on November 8, the results will be known. The campaign by all political parties that had started in right earnest will only catch steam now with Bihar emerging as crucial for both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Opposition combine. It is, as a Congress leader said, a make or break election in a sense for both.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, faced with considerable criticism within just 16 months of the Lok Sabha election, desperately needs to win this large and important state that will then serve as a mandate for past policies, and secure the future too for a while at least. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has stitched together an alliance with Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad and the Congress party, needs a victory to catapult himself onto the national stage in time for the next general elections. And of course the Opposition parties in Delhi need a victory to further unite and strengthen their base before the next Lok Sabha polls.
The election campaign centres around PM Modi and CM Kumar, the two faces of this election. Both have presented the face of development and growth, focusing on the youth and trying to cut across all castes and communities in their speech. Economic packages have become the USP for the most impoverished state of India, with Lalu Prasad mimicking PM Modi on what is being referred to popularly as his “auction” speech offering a huge financial package for Bihar. Kumar has also taken up the “DNA issue” using a comment by the Prime Minister to build a campaign against the latter for insulting the DNA of Biharis.
However, the real campaign is under this fluff of charges and counter charges. And it is this second, away from the public eye campaign that will determine the outcome of the Bihar polls. The RSS cadres have spread across the state for weeks now, and are working hard to one, polarise the communities with its usual rumours/propaganda machinery; and two, working specifically on vote banks such as the poor backwards, the Dalits and the youth of course who could have gone to Kumar and the alliance, to bring them to the BJP. The success of the RSS and the BJP in consolidating a “Hindu” vote over a caste vote and at the same time breaking the caste consolidation from within will have a major impact on the final outcome.
To its advantage is of course money power that seems to be in more than plenty.
The JD(U) led alliance is working on one, the BJP has no chief ministerial candidate and Nitish Kumar is the man on the ground – that does have its own appeal. There are many in the BJP, the most vocal being Shatrughan Sinha, who feel that if the BJP had fielded a local candidate, its victory would have been certain. There are others who do not agree, saying that this kind of an announcement could have led to considerable problems and break-ups within. But it is a sensitive issue for the BJP, all said and done. Two, its “Bihar for Biharis” campaign seems to have some takers. But under all this are the caste equations with the possibility of these elections serving as a revival for Lalu Yadav. The Bhumiyar Brahmin consolidation in favour of the BJP has turned their arch enemy, the Yadavs back to Lalu who is campaigning hard across the state.
The Muslim vote is guaranteed, but interestingly enough no one is talking about this for fear of hastening the BJP efforts at communal polarisation. The race is on for all the other vote banks, with seat allocation being the next litmus test for the JD(U) alliance. Both the BJP and the JD(U) alliance will try and fix candidates in as many seats as possible as per the social equations set loose by the others choice for specific constituencies.
The Left alliance is barely heard of, although the CPI, CPI(M) and CPI-ML have entered into an electoral arrangement as part of their decision to work for Left unity. Efforts by the Janata Dal(U) to convince the first two parties to join the larger alliance failed, despite the fact that these polls are widely recognised as the turning point for all concerned. And Left support might not have added to the number of seats perhaps, but certainly to the atmosphere of unity and credibility.
Samajwadi party leader Mulayam Singh, as many had expected, chose the last minute to walk out of the alliance after refusing to attend rallies and meetings. And he has announced his decision to field candidates in all the seats. He will not make a major impact but his importance will lie in confusing the scenario, and fielding candidates who will cut into the JD(U) alliance votes.
Seema Mustafa
