The sudden fall of Kabul has left all nations scampering to adjust and extract their citizens and diplomats from Afghanistan. While the worst fears about the Taliban resurrecting the medieval Sharia-backed puritanical order have not yet come true, the safest word is “wait and watch”.The recurring question is whether the Taliban have learnt anything from their last stint in power in 1996-2001?
The ground realityis as follows. While US troops control the military side and operational control of Kabul airport, including the Afghan air space, the access to the civilian side is under the Taliban. Thus, hundreds complained to the CNN reporter that the Taliban were turning them back despite even having green cards. This may be due to language or simply comprehension problems but the US needs to resolve it. The BBC was reporting that their troops have been extracting their subjects from Kabul and escorting them to the airport. So far, no confrontation has occurred between western forces and the Taliban in this process but it cannot be ruled out in future.
US President Joe Biden in an address to the nation simply denied mishandling the last phase before Kabul fell. David Axelrod, close adviser toformerpresidentBarak Obama tweeted that by “stubbornly insisting that he was right all along, w/outfullyacknowledging the pain of this withdrawal & botched execution…. Biden diminished the power of his argument”. In case the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan worsens Biden will get more flak.
What could be the next steps to watch in Afghanistan? Even China, most supportive of the Taliban from amongst the five permanent members of the United Security Council, wants to see a transitional government that is broad-based. While the US, Britain and India would want the inclusiveness to be genuine, China and Pakistan may settle for a fig-leaf. The latter outcome will not necessarily bring stability. Former Vice President Amrullah Saleh on his Twitter account has described himself as Acting President- Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. He has taken refuge in the impregnable Panjshir valley, under the protection of the son of the late Ahmad Shah Masood. Apparently, the Tajik component of the AfghanNationalArmy(ANA)has withdrawn with tanks and heavy weapons to the valley. Their demand for accepting any new regime is inclusiveness. Separately, crowds rushed into the streets of Jalalabad to raise the Afghan flag leading to a shooting by Taliban forces, causing deaths. Thus, matters are not settled yet fully in favour of the Taliban.
Iran’s behaviour also indicates they perceive some changes in Taliban as they have muted their criticism, not fully withdrawn their officials from Afghanistan and even worked out the extraction of Ismail Khan, the strongman of Herat, and given him refuge at Mashhad. Taliban may have concluded that keeping an alternative channel of access to the Gulf open would reduce their dependence on Pakistan. Their de facto leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradarandlikelynextpresident spent almost a decade under detentioninPakistanashe was suspected of negotiating a peace deal with the then Afghan President Hamid Karzai. He may turn out to be less of a Pakistani puppet than India fears.
Indianoptionsare thus currently limited. But India holds two cards: continued developmental assistance that Afghanistan desperately needs; and India’s traditionally close relations with minority ethnic groups like Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras etc. But having kept Iran at an arm’s length for over a decade and a half to comply with US wishes will now prove expensive. Iranians may nurse old hurts under their smiles. Without them, India has no access or cards to play in Kabul. The lesson is not to hitch your foreign policy to that of major powers. When they switch tracks, you are left stranded.
