The extraordinary brutality with which the Iranian regime is crushing its own citizens has shaken the world’s conscience. Donald Trump, as is his wont, made himself the centre of attention first by declaring that he would attack Iran if executions of protesters did not stop and then retreating by finding an off-ramp, claiming that the Iranian regime stopped executions because of his threat. The pain and suffering the freedom-loving Iranian people are enduring are real and far more important, and the shenanigans of Trump should not deflect global attention from the tragedy enveloping a proud nation with a long history and civilisation.
By the 6th century BC, the Persian Empire was a mighty global force. The Achaemenid Empire, founded by Cyrus the Great in 550 BC, ended finally with Alexander’s triumph against Darius. It was this conquest of Persia that made Alexander invincible in his quest for creating the largest empire known to man until that time. With the fall of the Sassanian Empire in 651 CE, Islamisation and severe persecution forced Zoroastrians to migrate to India. Over centuries, Parsis migrated to India, and the Indian society embraced them with great warmth. The Parsis in turn are fully integrated with the Indian society and are among the most successful and respected ethnic groups in India.
By the 18th and 19th centuries, the Persian Empire had been weakened by internal strife and had become a pawn in the hands of Britain and Russia during the colonial era. In 1921, Reza Shah ended the Qajar dynasty in a coup and was elected monarch by the Iranian Parliament (Majlis), establishing the Pahlavi dynasty. He began modernising Iran. In 1941, the Allied forces of Britain and the Soviet Union invaded and occupied neutral Iran and forced Reza Shah to abdicate in favour of his son, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi.
Mohammad Reza Shah continued with the modernisation drive of his father and initiated land reforms and women’s suffrage. Had the modernisation of Iran continued unabated, Iran would probably have emerged as a modern, constitutional liberal democracy. But the process was interrupted by the rise and fall of Mossadegh, who was elected as prime minister in 1951 by the Iranian Parliament (Majlis). The Mossadegh government nationalised the Iranian oil industry, which was mostly controlled by the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, having exclusive rights to Iranian oil. In the wake of this so-called "Abadan crisis", Britain, which lost control of the Iranian oil industry, persuaded a reluctant United States to overthrow the Mossadegh government through their respective intelligence agencies in Operation Ajax. Domestic dissent was fuelled by foreign manipulation and interference, and the Shah was persuaded to dismiss Mossadegh as the prime minister. A pliable Fazlollah Zahedi was installed as prime minister. The new Iranian government dutifully split ownership of oil between Iran and Western companies.
Subsequently, Mohammad Reza Shah centralised powers under himself. The Shah introduced many reforms and accelerated the modernisation programme. Infrastructure improved, taxation was modernised, industry was promoted, land reforms were pursued, literacy increased, and, all in all, Iran witnessed an impressive growth.
However, in the absence of a democratic outlet to let off steam, dissent grew. Reforms always have winners and losers. Reconciliation of conflicting interests and credible liberal democratic opposition are critical to manage dissent, promote stability, and ensure long-term growth. Over-centralisation, inevitable unease with rapid reforms, and the perception of Western domination created a wave of unrest which was capitalised on by fundamentalist and obscurantist religious forces in the absence of a secular, liberal alternative.
That is what led to the 1979 Iranian revolution, the end of monarchy, and the installation of a theocracy under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and later Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The rest is history. The theocratic regime has become increasingly paranoid, insular, and draconian. In its quest for legitimacy and leadership of the Islamic world, various militant and terrorist forces were sponsored by the Iranian regime; Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and various sects of the Muslim Brotherhood in Iraq and elsewhere are Iran’s proxies. The constant obsession with the jihadi approach of the regime and the Western sanctions against Iran led to the impoverishment and decline of a proud society and people.
Iran is a relatively modern society. In September 2022, 22-year-old Mahsa Amini was arrested and was killed in custody for not wearing a hijab. A wave of protests followed. In the current phase, over the last month, there have been massive protests as the economic crisis deepened. Millions are expressing anger all over Iran. The regime has resorted to brutal oppression. Up to 25,000 protesting citizens have been killed or executed summarily. There is a total shutdown of the internet and social media, and the regime seems to be intent on crushing dissent and the spirit of the people instead of reforming the system.
What are the learnings for all of us outside? First, liberal democracies and modern societies require decades of secular nation-building exercises. We in India are very fortunate that our founding fathers and freedom fighters struggled for decades to unite our society and build a liberal, democratic society even before the republic was created. In the absence of such nation-building, countries flounder and are easily destabilised. Witness the Arab Spring—the promise of reform quickly gave way to religious fundamentalism and, in some cases, was replaced by military dictatorship.
Second, undemocratic regimes tend to survive for a while through brutal oppression, as people have no recourse, and the global community is helpless. Either the religious fanaticism of a regime or the sheer lust for power at any cost will make those at the helm slaughter innocent people with impunity. When a dictatorial regime is reluctant to slaughter its own people on a large scale, the regime often falls! This is the paradox of the modern nation-state system.
A rare external intervention may lead to regime change in such cases, but often it does more harm than good. Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia caused the collapse of the brutal Pol Pot regime. Al Qaeda was replaced in 2001 by the American invasion, but they are back in power, and the Afghan people cannot enjoy freedom or prosperity.
Eventually, brutal regimes do collapse. The fall of the Berlin Wall, the liberation of Eastern Europe, and the collapse of the Soviet Union are all recent examples, reminding us that change is inevitable. But will change lead to a better society or a continued oppression by a different regime? That is the question. Let us hope the Iranian people will come out of this nightmare and find freedom and dignity soon.
The author is the founder of Lok Satta movement and Foundation for Democratic Reforms. Email: drjploksatta@gmail.com / Twitter@jp_loksatta Iran – Paradox of Nation-state System
