It is the last week of November, and yet there is no sign of the ‘First Advance Estimates of Production’ of foodgrains, oilseeds and other commercial crops for the 2025-26 Kharif season (until the time of writing of this column on November 24).
It is unclear what is holding up the Union Ministry of Agriculture from publishing the estimates.
Major Kharif season harvests include rice, pulses (tur/arhar, urad), coarse cereals (maize), oilseeds (soybean, groundnut), cotton and sugarcane.
Although the trade makes its own best-judgement estimates of production based on acreage, rainfall, and other factors, value chain participants look forward to the government’s official estimates that serve as a second opinion. Often, official estimates trigger administrative action, like price support programmes, storage restrictions, etc.
A private forecast of Kharif 2025-26 major crop production was published in these columns more than six weeks ago. (FPJ, October 8).
Of course, the first official estimates are subject to revision in the second and third estimates published subsequently based on additional inputs or information received.
The central government compiles area and production estimates based on data received from the states. The area data received from the states are said to be validated with information from remote sensing. Also, it is claimed that yield estimates are based on crop-cutting experiments, previous trends, and other contributing factors.
The first advance estimates (Kharif season) are usually published in the last week of September when crop conditions crystallise. However, over the last four years, there has been a consistent delay in the publication of the first advance estimates.
In 2021 and 2022, the first advance estimates were released on September 21. In 2023, it was delayed by over a month and was released on October 27. It got worse in 2024 with the release inordinately delayed until November 5. By this time, market participants already form a good idea of the harvest size.
This year (Kharif 2025) the estimates are yet to be published. This delay is unjustified and unexplained. Extended rains beyond September could be one reason, but many suspect it serves as an excuse. Someone in the agriculture ministry must own up to responsibility for timely dissemination of vital information.
Data sanctity, data accuracy, and data timeliness are critical for agricultural markets. There seems to be a deterioration in this respect. In addition to solid infrastructure like warehouses, access roads, and robust market yards, the agricultural system demands efficient ‘soft infrastructure’, which includes timely data collection, collation, analysis, and dissemination. There is a huge scope for improvement in our soft infrastructure in this regard.
Undue delays usually trigger avoidable speculation in the marketplace about the real crop size that in turn may exert an undesirable effect on prices. Already, the shortfall in the production of pulses, cotton, and oilseeds is palpable. Private estimates show the harvest size is far less than the official production target and lower than even last year’s low harvest size.
The import volumes of cotton, pulses, and edible oils are set to increase in 2025-26. The government’s lackadaisical approach to vital crop data will lead to speculative tendencies in the marketplace. It can adversely impact the inflation outlook and monetary policy outcomes.
Is New Delhi listening?
G Chandrashekhar is an economist, senior journalist and policy commentator, and provides policy inputs for the government. Views are personal.
