As you read this column, elections to return 288 members to the Maharashtra State Assembly are already underway. By 7 PM today the voting process will be completed, and by 3 PM on next Thursday most of the winners would be declared by the Election Commission of India. Therefore, for the next three days there will prevail an uncomfortable silence in the political corridors of the state. It is not the silence of 'peace', it is the silence before the storm.
The moot question that is being discussed in media and also in public is whether the Bharatiya Janata Party along with the Shiv Sena be able to retain power in the state. If yes, will BJP be able to win 145 seats on its own to become an unchallengeable ruling side without the help of any other party including its junior but long-standing partner Shiv Sena? If the BJP fails to achieve that golden figure, will it be able to reach closer to 145 so that with the help of smaller parties like Republican Party of India (RPI) led by Ramdas Athawale, it can stake its claim to power. If the BJP is forced to seek support from the Shiv Sena, will the latter help its 'Big Brother' without demanding a 'pound of flesh' in return?
Pound of Flesh?
The million-dollar question is what would be Shiv Sena's definition of 'Pound of Flesh'? In 2014, when the BJP and the Sena contested without an alliance, the Sena finished 63 and the BJP even with 123 fell short of achieving a wholesome 145. At the end, the era of détente emerged and the Sena joined the Devendra Fadnavis Government as Junior Partner. It was a humiliating situation for the 'militant brand' of the Sena. The Sena always boasted being the Senior Partner and when the alliance grabbed power in Maharashtra for the first time in 1985, it was Manohar Joshi who took the seat of Chief Minister without any hassle. The situation flipped and the political equations changed. Fadnavis clearly denied even the post of Deputy Chief Minister to the Sena and the latter swallowed their pride and accepted the offer.
Now, moving towards an alliance and taking a vow to live happily again, it is a known fact that Fadnavis has promised the post of Deputy Chief Minister to Sena's Aditya Thackeray. Though unwritten, that was perhaps the main condition. However, during the campaign, the second rank leaders of the BJP are sending clear indications that this is not the case. Will the Sena once again take the insult in its stride and join the government, or will it take the bold decision to bow out and sit in the opposition? The direction of the state politics would be decided on this move.
The recent opinion polls conducted by various agencies and carried on leading TV channels indicate that the alliance would win the elections, and the BJP would come out as the single largest party very close to the halfway mark. In that eventuality, will Sena be treated with its due respect or would it meet the same fate as in 2014? In case, as predicted by the opinion polls the BJP does not reach the magic figure of 145, and if the Sena decides not to join the government or support it from outside, the BJP will have to look forward to seeking support from other forces. It may be recalled that Sharad Pawar's NCP had rendered unsolicited and unconditional support to the BJP from outside in 2014 to enable Fadnavis to take the oath and face the first confidence vote successfully.
Another issue worth watching is how would other forces like Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and MIM fair in this election? Recently the MIM exhibited its strength, particularly in Marathwada, by winning the prestigious Aurangabad seat by defeating Sena's four-time MP Chandrakant Khaire. The Vanchit has also reportedly made inroads among the downtrodden, especially in rural Maharashtra. Raj Thackeray's high-voltage speeches are always a center of attraction for the audience and media. His appeal to return him to the heights of an able opposition seems to have gone well with the electorate. If these factors are translated into victories, these forces would turn out to be the most crucial tilting factor.
Pawar, The Warrior!
On the other hand, this is a battle for survival for both the Congress and the NCP. While the leader-less Congress seems to have accepted its defeat and is not posing any challenge to the BJP-Sena Alliance, Sharad Pawar, at 79, is leaving no stone unturned to ensure that his party comes out with a respectable figure. He held a series of public rallies all over the state and appealed to the youth to support his party. According to reports, the attendance of young voters from rural Maharashtra was significant and would surely make an impact on the voting pattern.
In short, today's election is significant for not only Maharashtra but for India, too. It is the first test of mandate after the BJP registered a massive victory for the Lok Sabha just five months ago.
The writer is a political analyst and former
Member of Parliament (RS).
