On a short trip to meet the grandchildren in Dubai, escaping New York over Christmas, one notices the complete disconnect between the festive atmosphere here and looming Omicron and geopolitical dangers in the world. The success of this 21st century Beirut rests on creating an oasis of high quality life and entertainment, disjuncted from reality.
Even at the turn of the century, despite 9/11, Dubai used the US military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan to do what Thailand did during the US'-Vietnam War. It became a safe haven for rest and recreation. It loosened investment rules for expatriates to plough money into real estate. The Dubai Expo, delayed by a year due to Covid-19, is now in full flow; and a beach-side branch of a famous Mykonos restaurant Namos would put the original to shame.
But reality cannot be banished, only ignored. A car driver from Peshawar keenly enquired about Navjot Sidhu, former cricketer and current Pradesh Congress chief in Punjab. He is, he proffered, friend of Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. Sidhu may be criticised in India for claiming Imran is like an elder brother, especially after the recent bomb blast in a Ludhiana court, but popular mythology can shape public perceptions.
The reality is that Pakistan is struggling to handle new militant organisations at home and obtain legitimacy for the Taliban government in Afghanistan. Also the unreeling humanitarian crisis in that country is getting little international attention. At the recent special meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) only Saudis opened their purse graciously. The likely resulting refugee egress from Afghanistan could enhance instability in the region. Pakistan may be beginning to realise that its success in getting the Taliban, its close ally, to capture power in Kabul may be a poisoned chalice. Pakistan allowing Indian food assistance to go overland to Afghanistan may be a recognition that a future with India locked out of that country is unworkable. But that is far from restoring normalcy to India-Pakistan relations.
The reasons for that are not difficult to decipher. One is the pre-election attempt by BJP to polarise votes communally in Uttar Pradesh and even Punjab. The other is the delimitation exercise in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), which is throwing up more seats for the Jammu region. Perhaps BJP wants to restore statehood only after it has rebalanced the electoral arithmetic in J&K. But that can only be after the March state election results. Meanwhile, more terrorist acts in Punjab and J&K can poison the regional atmosphere.
As if this was not complicated enough, the Chinese have not stopped their forward push against India all along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), especially by settling small clusters of population along their claim lines, often into space claimed by India. But China is facing a slowing economy and perhaps a more serious danger from Omicron, as Chinese vaccines are of dubious utility against it. This is likely to make the Chinese regime more insecure and thus more assertive on national security issues. Meanwhile, there is interesting data on food grains emerging from China as the Indian government ends its standoff with Indian farmers of grain growing states. China spent USD 98.1 billion importing food last year. According to Nikkei Asia, over the past five years China's import of soybean, maize and wheat rose two-to-twelve fold with purchases from the US, Brazil etc. Some of these purchases have been done via private companies. The reason for this is that globally food prices have been rising. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) food price index is 30 per cent higher than the previous year. Allegedly, hoarding by China is a major reason for it. Chinese production of wheat and other food crops peaked in 2015.
Thus food security may again become a major issue after decades of high agricultural productivity post the 1960s green revolution. India will have to reimagine its farming strategy. Hastily passed farm laws and their equally quick repeal showed that reform needs patience and consensus building. It does not mean reform is not achievable. It also shows how domestic politics and diplomacy in Asia are intertwined as both India and China rise. Historically two rising powers with clashing perceptions and outstanding disputes have tended to go to war rather than grow peacefully. When pandemics, food scarcity and climate change are thrown into the pack it gets even more complex and dangerous.
India has just changed its envoy to Beijing. However great a Sinologist the next appointee may be, diplomats can merely smoothen the grinding between two nations. They cannot alter national imperatives, especially if, as in India, domestic electoral cycles impel a government towards hyper nationalism. Also if, as in China, the domestic pact of constant economic growth in exchange for political rights and freedoms is endangered. 4
The world, especially Asia, is thus passing through a period of power redistribution. These phases reset global power equations. Wisdom and restraint are the requisites of this happening peacefully, despite frequent clashes of interests. For each Pathan taxi driver you need one in India and China with similar empathy for citizens of a neighbouring country. Hopefully 2022 shall spread such humanism
