A day after the funeral of its iconic military commander, General Qaseem Soleimani, attended probably by a record number of mourners, Iran launched its threatened revenge. Missiles struck the US forces base-camp in Baghdad at the same time on Wednesday, at which hour an American drone attack days earlier had taken out Soleimani alongwith an Iraqi militant commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, while the two were on their way to the Baghdad airport. The US justified the attack, asserting Soleimani was plotting killings of more Americans, though it furnished no evidence. Fears of escalation into full-fledged armed hostilities were somewhat relieved with President Trump claimed after the missile attacks that Iran seems to be standing down. In a televised broadcast after the Iranian attack, he claimed that there were no casualties. The US had advance warning of the attack, it would seem. On the other hand, Iran claimed great success in exacting revenge for Soleimani’s murder, with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei telling a crowd of the devout that Iran had ‘slapped the US in the face.’ Such boastful rhetoric from both sides is understandable, satiating as it does the respective ultra nationalistic constituencies in the two countries. Trump, seeking re-election, has already begun exploiting the Soleimani’s killing to portray himself as a strong leader. However, the danger of this strategy is that it may oblige Khamenei to actually escalate the conflict. Even though Iran in its current sanctions-weakened condition is in no position to risk a full-fledged confrontation with the mightiest military in the world, it is important for the ruling Ayatollahs in Teheran to be able to be standing up to the American threat. Therefore, the threat of provocative attacks on American targets by Iran or by its militant proxies in the region can never be ruled out. It is therefore imperative that Trump offers a window, however small, to Iran for it to be able to walk back from the precipice with its national pride unhurt. Being a self-confessed realist possessing a flexible conscience, Trump has himself sought to meet the top Iranian leaders. Last September, the latter rejected the overtures given the hardening of economic sanctions by Trump and his rejection of the 2015 nuclear deal. Should Trump display a rare streak of statesmanship, demonstrably relaxing sanctions to facilitate a meeting with the Iranian leadership, the ever-spiralling conflict with the powerful Shia nation could offer some hope of a wider resolution in the entire region. Bringing Iran on board can help resolve several on-going armed conflicts in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Gaza, West Bank, etc. Iranian-Saudi tussle for supremacy in the Islamic world may have its genesis in the deep-seated Shia-Sunni fault-lines but without the American meddling matters would not have taken such a dangerous turn.
Now that the US has emerged as number one energy producer in its own right, leaving behind even Saudi Arabia, it should feel secure enough to allow the two most powerful Islamic nations to re-discover the fruits of peaceful co-existence. However, Trump still cannot help being arbitrary. The denial of visa to Iran’s Foreign Minister Jawad Zarif for attending a meeting of the Security Council was not only an avoidable affront but it violated the terms of agreement with the New York-headquartered world body. The US under Trump has gone out of the way to challenge Iran. Whether it is because of Trump’s proximity to the Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Salman, or something else, it is undeniable that the Trump administration has shown great animus against the Iranian regime. Instead of forcing a regime-change in Teheran, Trump’s unconcealed hostility has only helped consolidate the Ayatollahs’ grip over the Iranian people, further fuelling anti-Americanism. Finally, given his stated objective of pulling America out of other peoples’ wars, isn’t it reasonable that Trump scales down his war of words against Iran and allows the latter to return to normalcy? Fierce competition between the Saudis and Iranians for carving out spheres of influence in the Islamic world may also get moderated once Iran is reassured of its place in the region. It cannot be treated like a pariah and then expected not to resist.
