President Trump was committed to take America out of the morass that is West Asia. His actions may have dragged it further deep into the most volatile region in the world. Fast-moving events last week culminating in the assassination of the top Iranian military commander, Maj. Gen. Oasem Soleimani, head of its elite special-operations force, now has the world sitting on the edge. Iran has threatened revenge. And no-one takes that threat lightly, least of all the US. Trump has flown additional forces to the region, asked all American nationals bar those absolutely necessary to leave West Asia, and, notably, post-attack is sounding conciliatory. His remarks on Saturday that he has nothing against the Iranian people nor does he seek regime- change in Teheran betray a sense of foreboding what the most powerful military power in the Middle East might do to upset his re-election bid. Not unlike a neighbourhood bully who fears to be put down by a superior force, Trump is said to have asked for ‘a measured response’ from Iran commensurate with the US action last week. Any escalation which forces the US into a wider military conflict could scupper his reelection chances. Trump had taunted President Obama in 2011, alleging he wanted to start a war in order to ensure his reelection. Instead, it is Trump who may have made war unavoidable with his ill-considered attack on the Iranian and Iraqi military commanders who were killed in a drone attack while on way to the Baghdad airport. The cycle of escalation in the fraught Iranian-US ties has been moving towards confrontation ever since Trump reneged on the nuclear deal his predecessor and other world powers had signed with Iran to prevent it going nuclear. The re-imposition of stringent economic sanctions badly hurt Iran’s economy, forcing it to drastically reduce its oil production. Iran’s currency has depreciated sharply with ordinary people facing increasing hardships. A moderate increase in the prices of petrol a few months ago triggered widespread protests throughout the country resulting in more than a hundred deaths and a considerable damage to public property. For the first time, effigies of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were burnt in public squares.
However, Trump’s unceasing provocations further give Iran an opportunity to up the ante, helping the leadership to divert public attention from its daily economic woes. A few months ago, Iranian special forces are said to have attacked a US surveillance drone. Other than threatening strong action, Trump did nothing. A few weeks later came the attacks on the Saudi oil refinery which caused disruption in oil production, pushing temporarily global crude oil prices. However, the tit-for-tat attacks assumed stridency when the Americans killed 25 Iranian militias belonging to its elite Quds Force which lends support to various Iran-funded militant groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. As a result, members of the Iran-backed militia, Kataib Hezbollah, laid siege to the US embassy in Baghdad, demanding that the Americans leave the country. Earlier, a private contractor working with the US military in the region was killed by militants allegedly close to Iran. But the attack on the US embassy was the ultimate trigger for Trump to order the killing of Soleimani. Fear of an escalation immediately pushed the price of crude oil higher. America advised its citizens against travelling to the Middle East as far as possible. It has warned its commercial airlines to avoid Pakistani airspace and ground handling. While the world sits on the knife-edge of a fresh conflict in the oil-rich Islamic world, fearing that the Iran-US fight could drag other countries into the conflagration, the Iranian nation has united in demanding ‘death for America’. Iranians have hinted the revenge would be strong and severe, but they will choose its place and timing. This has injected an element of anxiety in the American politics, with the Democrats questioning Trump’s amateurish approach in foreign relations and the Republicans supporting the President. It is near-certain that Iran would react in a manner to that would make Trump small in the eyes of his jingoistic base. Ahead of the presidential poll later this year, this overt foreign intervention in the US election could hurt Trump badly.
