Pakistan is witnessing multiple levels of confrontations like the supreme court and president, Arif Alvi versus Shehbaz Shariff government and former prime minister, Imran Khan’s head on army collision with powerful army which may create civil war like situation leading to imposition of either emergency or take over by army.
Experts feel that the biggest blunder committed by Khan pertains to his assessment of undermining the powerful army which was accused of hatching a plot to kill him. It has been solely responsible for the storming of rangers in courtroom to arrest him though in a case related to a corruption case involving an allegation of earning billions of rupees through illegal land transactions.
National accountability, an anti-corruption body, arrested Imran with the help of rangers who whisked him away thereby resulting in violence by Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) workers who went on rampage in several parts of the country.
POLITICAL FUTURE OF IMRAN IS UNCERTAIN
Analysts opine that entry of army may endanger political career of Imran who may be tried and jailed to keep him away from general elections. Khan may go Nawaj Sahriff way which will create a void in his Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) and new leadership will be required.
Shehbaz Sharif seems to be scared of the popularity of Imran after he was ousted from premiership last year with the help of the army. But Imran Khan forgot that the army rules the roost in Pakistan and he undertook a misadventure of lambasting army officials (ISI)for ensuring his defeat in parliament and later conspiring to kill him.
Imran had also accused America of helping Shebahz in snatching the power from him and it had irked the army which keeps in touch with the US administration. Imran Khan was the creation of army and former army chief Quamar Javed Bajwa had played main role but ex Pm turned against Bajwa and tried to have a say in promotions of the army which was unacceptable hence lost his prime minister’s post.
IMPACT ON INDIA
Experts opine that the existing turmoil in Pakistan immensely affects India as instability may give an impetus to terrorists’ groups which are being given shelter by the Sharif government and army. Second, chaos in Pakistan may also give fillip to the terrorists’ activities in Kashmir and China can exploit such grim situation to harm India.
ARMY MAY TRY TO REGAIN ITS PRESTIGE
It has happened for the first time in the history of Pakistan when any politician like Khan dared to challenge the authority of army which has endanger his life besides taking hundred percent risk of ending political career. Army chief, Asim Munir is playing safe though present prime minister got full support from army which may be called if civil administration collapses.
Army is confronting the terror attacks which have increased and people are feeling unsafe. It is fact that such incidents of terror attacks have been gradually lowering the confidence of public. Imran Khan’s onslaught on army was error of judgement as he may certainly face vicious type of retaliation in future though the Shebaz government may be kept on the forefront. Khan took on ISI which oversees the internal security and is known for infamous tactics to crush even political rivals.
Khan has been demanding elections in Punjab province and supreme court had fixed May 15 as a date to hold polls but Shebhaz government refused to honor the verdict which had led to open confrontation. Second, Imran is facing more than 140 cases including Toshakhana expensive gifts of millions of rupees and case was filed against him in August 2022. Third, EX PM stands disqualified by Pakistan election commission on the charges of corrupt practices on Oct 21, 2022.
PAKISTAN’S WOES DO NOT END HERE
It is irony of circumstances that common people in Pakistan are fighting for survival as prices of essential commodities have gone sky high including 20 Kg Atta for Rs 2,100 - Rs 2,599, Milk Rs 120 - Rs 130 per litre etc but the Shebaz Sharif government and main opposition led by former PM, Imran Khan are blood thirsty of each other one former wants to stick to Chair and latter wants to snatch power which may force the public to come on the streets like Sri Lanka.
Pakistan is facing serious crisis thereby endangering the survival of democracy which has been compounded owing to direct confrontation between executive and judiciary besides head-on collision of president, Arif Ali with Shehbaz Sharif government thereby putting the future of countrymen at stake.
While helping bankrupt and economically depressed Pakistan, IMF has forced it to accept yet another retreat hence Shehbaz Sharif government had to agree to impose 1 per cent poverty tax on firms earning Rs 15 crore, 2 per cent on those earning Rs 20 crore, 3 per cent on over Rs 25 crore and 4 per cent on Rs 30 crore and above. In the original budget, the government had set a 2 per cent poverty tax only on those earning Rs 30 crore and above.
Pakistan’s negotiating team led by Finance Minister, Miftah Ismail, agreeing on an understanding on the 2022-23 budget after the authorities committed to generate Rs 43,600 crore more taxes. Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded Pakistan’s credit rating outlook to negative from stable due to its sinking economy and lack of resources mobilization. IMF has not signed an agreement with Pakistan to restart a $6.5 billion loan which has been stalled since Nov,2022 which has endangered economic survival.
Experts say that Pakistan is in deep soup and arson and looting by ex PM,Imran Khan’s supporters may push the country into anarchy which is not good for entire region and everything will depend upon the role of army which needs to adopt restraint to save democracy in this troubled nation.
Writer is political analyst and senior journalist based in Shimla
