Leading poll strategist Prashant Kishor rejects the view that the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls are a semi-final for 2024. While UP may not be a bellwether for the Lok Sabha elections, the outcomes will certainly affect the political fortunes of the main players, who are giving it their all.
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s campaign is the most interesting by far. She has consciously targeted that most marginalised of constituencies - the women’s vote. It is a bold gamble, which could pay off big if it clicks. The ‘Ladki hoon, lad sakti hoon’ slogan is aimed at aspirational young women and cuts across caste, class and community.
The message of assertion resonates with Priyanka’s combative personality, and this enhances its credibility. No party has attempted the political mobilisation of women in UP, where intersectionality of identities has translated into various forms of social oppression. In an oblique reference to recent incidents of sexual assault on women, Priyanka observed, “Only women can bring about a change because they have compassion, they are firm, and they have the power.”
The representation of women in politics has historically been poor. In fact, it was only in 2017 that the number of women MLAs crossed 10 per cent. The dominance of patriarchy has effectively excluded half the state population from policy-making. This, despite the fact that Mayawati, a woman and a Dalit, was chief minister for four terms.
The Congress has promised 40 per cent of the tickets to women candidates. Whether or not it manages to achieve the number, it has certainly set the bar for other parties. In the long term, this will improve participation of women in UP politics. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik have been trailblazers in this respect, and reaped electoral rewards.
As an electoral gambit, the focus on core gender identity is clever, as all other spaces in terms of community, caste and class are occupied by other, bigger players. Coupled with Priyanka’s relentless campaigning, both online and in-person, it has generated a positive buzz, at least within the demoralised party organisation. The grand old party has not seen a win in UP since 2009, so Priyanka’s success will be measured in terms of improved vote share (6.25 per cent) and seat share (seven). If she proves herself in UP, the pressure from below for a leadership change at the centre could well intensify. Already, the Congress rank-and-file sees her as the natural-born leader.
The Congress’s success can only come at the cost of the SP, but Akhilesh Yadav doesn’t seem particularly disturbed. He anticipates a two way contest and has been chipping away at the BJP’s vote base. Although he got off to a late start, he has since worked hard to craft strategic alliances and build a social coalition beyond the MY (minority-Yadav) combine. Defections from the BSP – and now the BJP – have strengthened the party’s position among the marginalised sections.
Akhilesh has taken a leaf from the BJP’s social engineering handbook by aggressively wooing OBCs and MBCs (most backward castes),and has promised to hold a caste census in UP. He is focusing on reserved seats and is being careful to select ‘winnable’ candidates. In keeping with the times, he is also attempting to distance himself from his father’s ‘Mulla Mulayam’ image (a reference to the SP patriarch’s championing of minority rights), so as not to alienate the majority.
If the former CM and Samajwadi Party chief manages to pull off a win, the Opposition will rally around him. In terms of stature, he will eclipse Rahul Gandhi as a ‘youth’ leader and could well emerge as a key player in 2024. Significantly, both the SP and TMC, which are on good terms, have rejected a leadership role for the Congress.
Just as Akhilesh realises the perils of polarisation, so does Yogi Adityanath understand that polarisation as an electoral strategy has its limits. The incumbent CM has the most at stake, because he is widely seen as the BJP’s succession plan. A proponent of muscular Hindutva and a ‘vikas purush’, much in the mould of Narendra Modi, his importance in the party organisation was enhanced when he delivered the political resolution at its national executive.
Rumours of an ouster, following differences with Modi, were effectively silenced, even before Home Minister Amit Shah linked Modi’s fortunes to Yogi’s: “If you want to make Modi Prime Minister again in 2024, make Yogi Adityanath the chief minister again in 2022”. Although not an insider, he has the backing of the RSS and won praise for his adept handling of the Lakhimpur Kheri incident.
His main challenge is the drift of OBCs, hitherto the backbone of the BJP’s electoral success. He had settled his differences with deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya, but the recent round of defections led by prominent OBC leader Swami Prasad Maurya is a significant set back. In addition, he faces anti-incumbency, lingering resentment over the handling of second wave of Covid-19,the backlash of the farmers’ agitation in western UP, rising prices and unemployment.
If, against all odds, he scripts a convincing win, the UP CM could be a contender for the top job. At the very least, it will enhance his stature and give him a big say in party affairs, including tickets for his loyalists in 2024. On the other hand, a loss would fuel demands for a change of guard in the UP BJP and a possible shift to the Centre for Yogi.
Missing in action in the line-up of UP leaders is the BSP’s Mayawati. Given that her party faces an existential crisis, having suffered tremendous attrition after the2019polls,her inactivity is curious and her future remains a question mark.
