The Aam Aadmi Party is facing the biggest crisis of its ten-year existence, with its USP of good governance in Delhi and Punjab tarnished, perhaps irretrievably. A party known for playing on the front foot is now on the back foot. Who will benefit from AAP’s embarrassment, and to what extent?
Manish Sisodia, AAP stalwart and Deputy Chief Minister of Delhi, has been effectively neutralised, while Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann is embattled on all fronts. High hopes of the AAP government in Punjab have been belied, with no hint of economic reforms or firm action to contain drug cartels and radical elements like Waris Punjab De.
Given that Sisodia is the number two both in the party and the state government, his loss of reputation is a significant setback for the AAP. Until the liquor policy scam broke, he was regarded as squeaky clean, and was celebrated as the architect of Delhi’s path-breaking education reforms. In fact, he was expected to take over as Delhi CM at some point, freeing up Arvind Kejriwal for expanding the party’s footprint in other states.
Sisodia’s fall from grace has been compounded by the Supreme Court’s refusal to intercede on his behalf, and by the fact that CBI Special court Judge M K Nagpal was convinced of the need to remand him to CBI custody for five days. The lack of judicial relief makes it harder to project the journalist-activist-turned-politician as the victim of a political conspiracy.
The AAP once stood for clean politics, participative democracy and a governance model that prioritised health and education. Earlier, when Punjab Health minister Vijay Singla was sacked on grounds of corruption, the AAP declared that the move was a testimony to its commitment to clean politics. But now, with two of its ministers compelled to quit on graft-related allegations, the AAP is beginning to look like any other party.
Populism has been the AAP’s calling card in all state elections, but the uncomfortable reality that handouts are not sustainable indefinitely is beginning to set in. The power subsidy on domestic connections in Punjab, for example, has proved extremely popular, but has put pressure on the state’s finances. As a result, the Punjab State Power Corporation Limited (PSPCL) was reportedly forced to borrow Rs 500 crore in order to pay staff salaries.
With an estimated 80%-plus of the population taking advantage of the subsidy, the additional burden of Rs 2,550 crore per year has brought the total electricity subsidy bill to Rs 27,420 crore.
Recently, employees of the Punjab State Electricity Board urged the government to clear the outstsanding subsidy amount on time, and also ensure that its departments pay their electricity bills, so that the power utility’s financial health could improve.
The debt crisis in Punjab — which has the highest debt to GSDP ratio in the country — has worsened under the AAP, which was compelled to undertake additional borrowings of Rs 35,000 crore to support subsidies. Earlier this year, the state government defaulted on repayment of an instalment of Rs 600 crore on a loan taken by Mann’s predecessor, Captain Amarinder Singh, to enable the farm loan waiver.
More worrying is Mann’s performance on the law and order front. The unprecedented storming of a police station by a radical faction, after which the state police caved in to its demands and ensured the release of a kidnapping accused, showed the AAP government in a poor light. This follows in the wake of high-profile murders last year, including that of rap sensation Sidhu Moosewala.
Gangsterism and the drug menace, in combination with the severe economic downturn, has created the ground for extremist forces peddling narratives of ethno-nationalism, alienation and step-motherly treatment by the Centre. ‘Delhi’ has historically had an uneasy relationship with Punjab, which is fiercely protective of its independence.
A presumptive sense of victimhood opens the doors to religious revivalism. So, whether it is the shenanigans of Waris Punjab De leader Amritpal Singh or the burgeoning cult of Sidhu Moosewala, the state ought to have acted decisively. The sentiment of ‘othering’ among vulnerable Sikh youth is already worrying. If AAP is seen to allow separatists to flourish in Punjab, it will lose traction in Delhi, which suffered through bomb blasts and killings during the Khalistan insurgency.
The Congress could have been default gainer in this scenario, but its leaders have been unable to formulate a coherent response. One section of leaders have come out against Sisodia all guns blazing, while another section, conscious of the need to draw Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal into its pre-poll umbrella alliance, was sympathetic.
In Punjab, the vacuum left by the Congress and discredited Akali Dal offers the BJP, which has never had a stake in the state, a window of opportunity. The BJP’s development plank may find traction in a state that has undergone steady deindustrialisation since 2000, resulting in unemployment and a falling GSDP. A decade of insurgency did not impact Punjab’s prosperity, but two decades of poor governance did. The result: Punjab ranked third in per capital income in 2000, but fell to the sixteenth place in 2020.
If AAP is to script a turnaround and retain its hold on Delhi, it will have to show some successes in Punjab.
Bhavdeep Kang is a senior journalist with 35 years of experience in working with major newspapers and magazines. She is now an independent writer and author
