Bashar al-Assad's possible removal by Islamist rebels in Syria could significantly impact India, given its deep historical, cultural and strategic ties with the Arab Republic. For decades, India and Syria have enjoyed a robust bilateral relationship, bolstered during Assad’s tenure, which has been marked by mutual support on international issues and cooperation in development projects.
India and Syria have maintained diplomatic ties since their establishment, with New Delhi condemning violence from both Assad’s regime and opposition rebels. India has supported Syria on key matters such as the Palestinian cause and its claims over the Golan Heights, while Syria has endorsed India’s position on the Kashmir conflict. At the United Nations, India refrained from supporting sanctions against Syria, advocating instead for conflict resolution through a non-military, Syrian-led process.
Despite the Syrian civil war that began in 2011 and the country's expulsion from the Arab League, India maintained its diplomatic presence in Damascus and pursued cooperation in various sectors. Key initiatives included a USD 240 million credit line for the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant, modernisation of Syrian steel plants, investments in the oil and IT sectors, and major exports of rice and pharmaceuticals, as reported by India Today. India’s consistent engagement, even during Syria’s global isolation, displayed its commitment to the relationship.
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India renewed its ties with Syria following its readmission into the Arab League in 2023. A landmark visit by India’s Minister of State for External Affairs to Damascus in July 2023 highlighted New Delhi’s intent to strengthen bilateral cooperation further.
How Will Assad's Exit Impact India?
Assad’s potential ouster, however, introduces new challenges for India. A regime led by groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with its extremist ideology, or the resurgence of ISIS, could destabilise the region. India’s strategic investments in Syria, including oil exploration projects with ONGC and the ambitious India-Gulf-Suez Canal corridor, may face significant risks.
Moreover, Syria has been a gateway for India’s broader engagement with the Middle East. A shift in Syria’s political landscape could disrupt these dynamics, necessitating a recalibration of India’s foreign policy.
Amid the ongoing uncertainty and internal conflicts among Syria’s rebel factions, India will need to closely monitor developments and adapt its approach to safeguard its political and economic interests in the region.
