Exit polls from India’s month-long parliamentary elections suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies are set to form the government again even as many are saying the predictions are wrong. But it’s just not the Indian exit polls that go wrong, even in Australia this year the exit polls proved wrong. The surprise victory of Australia’s center-right Liberal Party in Saturday’s general election was so unexpected that even re-elected Prime Minister Scott Morrison described it as a “miracle.”
Here are a few instances when the exit polls abroad went wrong:
Australia Elections 2019: It was predicted to be the federal election Labor simply couldn’t lose, but after last night’s surprise Coalition win, the opinion poll may struggle to stand the test of time. Years of polling predicted a Labor victory with exit polls putting Bill Shorten in front by 52-48.
As a shocked Australian Labour Party licks its wounds at the unexpected loss of the election, the governing Liberal Party will be giving thanks to Lynton Crosby’s campaign management and polling. Three months ago every “expert” pundit down under expected and predicted Labor to win the general election. Some exit polls even showed a clear Labour majority. Nearly all polls predicted Bill Shorten would have an easy win with a 51:49 lead over Prime Minister Scott Morrison on a two-party preferred basis. In fact, for two years the polls had picked the Opposition to take government.
Brexit predictions: The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum took place in the United Kingdom and Gibraltar on 23 June 2016. On 23 June 2016, the recorded result was that the UK voted to leave the European Union by 51.89% for Leave to 48.11% for Remain, a margin of 3.78%. This corresponded to 17,410,742 votes to leave and 16,141,241 to remain, a margin of 1,269,501 votes. The pollsters, companies that predict exit polls, consistently predicted a Remain majority before the final result.
US 2016 presidential election: People were shocked to see Donald Trump winning the elections as most of the exit polls had predicted that Hillary Clinton would win. Exit polls from the 2016 presidential election showed Hillary Clinton winning four crucial swing states that, when the final vote tallies came in, were actually won by Donald Trump. With 270 of the 538 available required to win the presidency, Clinton fell 38 electoral votes short of victory.
