Amid the rise in cases of Covid-19, Mumbai is witnessing a sharp decline in weekly doubling rate of positive cases in the last seven days.
Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) data shows that the current overall doubling rate of cases has dropped to 682 days from 2,050 days which was until December 21.
Officials from the health department have attributed this to the laxity behaviour of the citizens in not following the COVID-19 norms, resulting in infection doubling rate has witnessed huge surge and decline respectively. However few doctors are calling this spike in the daily cases count as a third wave, while civic health officials have maintained that it is too early to term it thus.
Mumbai has been a COVID-19 hotspot ever since the pandemic hit the country. However, cases had started declining significantly until mid-December. But over the last one week, there has been a sudden surge in the number of cases reported daily. Hearteningly, however, there is not much change in the number of fatalities, with the numbers having come down marginally in the past two-three months. The daily death count has remained below 5 for the past two to three months.
Dr Shashank Joshi, member of the covid-19 Task Force of Maharashtra said there is possible a third wave in Mumbai as the numbers clearly suggesting a clear trend, but all mild cases and no major strain on Healthcare seen as of now, everyone needs to be vigilant and cautious for sure. Near certain that we have an Omicron outbreak in Mumbai, but genomics needs to confirm it.
“We definitely need to be on a vigil. We need to ramp up our genomic sequencing. The positivity rate in early December was below 0.5% and now it is nearing 2% in Mumbai, it is the current hotspot considering the high population density and migration. Currently, there is a huge population who have arrived from abroad after attending weddings and various functions,” he said.
Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner said there are several factors due to which the doubling rate has dropped in the city. Moreover that there has been a rise in cases over the last couple of days, with a decrease in the doubling rate and increase in growth rate being indicators of the same.
However they are stepping up containment measures accordingly and are not speaking of a lockdown but citizens will have to be more alert and follow Covid-19 safety protocol. “Plus, 90 per cent of activities in Mumbai are happening in the open places , where people are not following Covid-19 appropriate behaviour, leading to an increase in cases. Till 31 December, we have decided to do genome sequencing of all positive cases to check whether it is Omicron or a Delta derivative or the Delta variant. Last time when we did genome sequencing, we found that Delta cases are mostly dominant,” Kakani said.
Senior health experts from the civic health department said the main reason for a surge in the positivity rate in the last one week is the violation of Covid-19 norms by citizens. Office goers are not wearing masks in the office, due to which the chances of infection increase. “Even though cases have increased, there is no need to panic. I urge citizens to wear masks whether they are in office or visiting crowded places, so that they will not contract infection,” he said.
CASES Days taken for cases to double
1st wave - 706 to 1367 - 12
2nd wave - 683 to 1325 - 20
3rd wave - 683 to 1377 - 4
3rd wave 1377 to 2510 - 1
