Mumbai: Mumbai is among the densely populated cities that could be at risk if Asteroid 2024 YR4, ominously dubbed the "city killer," collides with Earth during its close flyby on December 22, 2032. The asteroid, discovered in December last year, has a 1.5% (or 1 in 67) chance of striking our planet, well above the critical 1% threshold that triggers heightened monitoring by global space agencies.
The potential impact corridor of Asteroid 2024 YR4, according to a NASA assessment reported by Scientific American, stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean to South Asia. The corridor includes several major cities, including Bogotá (Colombia), Lagos (Nigeria), and Mumbai, highlighting the possible danger to millions of lives.
The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 300 feet wide, roughly the size of a large office building. Experts warn that if it hits Earth, the immediate impact could mirror the devastation of a hydrogen bomb explosion, with enough force to obliterate any city in its path, including Mumbai.
However, scientists remain optimistic as the odds of a collision are decreasing daily. Bruce Betts, Chief Scientist at the Planetary Society, told the New York Post that the probability of impact might drop to zero within the next few months or years, similar to the trajectory of the asteroid Apophis. "At some point in the next months to few years, the probability will go to zero," Betts said.
Efforts Made To Ascertain Exact Path Of Asteroid
Despite this optimism, astronomers are not taking any chances. NASA is collaborating with international counterparts, including the China National Space Administration (CNSA), Roscosmos (Russia) and the European Space Agency (ESA), to refine the asteroid's predicted path.
A dedicated team of astronomers plans to use NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to obtain more precise estimates of the asteroid's size and trajectory. Observations are scheduled for early March and again in early May, just before the asteroid moves out of sight until its orbit brings it back near Earth in 2028.
