Withdrawal of the Southwest monsoon will mostly be on schedule over the state, as per the latest extended range predictions issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), and is expected to withdraw around October 15. Satellite images and weather models have indicated moderate to intense thunderstorms with lighting and heavy spells at isolated places in Maharashtra between October 3 and October 4.
The heavy spell of showers in Mumbai and adjoining areas is an indication of the withdrawal of monsoon. According to revised withdrawal dates for monsoon, the new one for Mumbai is October 8 against the usual September 29. Last year, monsoon withdrawal was delayed by 39 days. The 2019 monsoon was one of the longest ever recorded, with the retreat termed as the most delayed one to commence over India.
Indicating the intensifying weather conditions on Saturday evening after dry spell over Mumbai and its suburbs for more than a week, KS Hosalikar, deputy director general of IMD, Mumbai said, "Intense convection developed over North Konkan as seen from Mumbai Doppler Radar. Parts of Raigad, Thane, Navi Mumbai and Palghar are likely to experience thunderstorms. Pune and adjoining ghat areas too.”
This season Mumbai has received 67 per cent more rainfall than average annual seasonal rainfall, stated officials from IMD.
According to the IMD, seasonal rainfall in the state has been normal. Maharashtra has recorded 16 per cent excess rain this year, with Marathwada recording surplus rain throughout the season.
Rainfall between -19 per cent and +19 per cent of the long period average is termed normal. Marathwada has recorded 30 per cent more rain than seasonal average at 866.1 mm rain. Three districts in Vidarbha – Amravati (-20), Akola (-27) and Yavatmal (-24) – recorded deficient rainfall.
Mumbai recorded 3,686.8 mm rainfall from June 1 to September 30, as against the seasonal average of 2,205.8 mm. This monsoon was also the second wettest monsoon ever, beating last year’s tally. This season, Mumbai recorded four ‘extremely heavy’ rain days, ie, rainfall above 200 mm in 24 hours.
The heaviest rainfall this season was on September 24 at 286.4 mm. Other extremely heavy rain days include 271 mm between August 3 and August 4 at Santacruz observatory. August 5 and 6 when South Mumbai received its highest rainfall at 331.8 mm over 24 hours.