Mumbai: The high-stakes battle for the control of India's richest civic body, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), enters its most decisive phase tomorrow. On January 22, Saturday, the state Urban Development Department will conduct a public lottery at the Secretariat to determine the reservation category for the Mayor’s post, a move that will effectively dictate who can lead the city for the next two-and-a-half years.
The lottery comes just days after the January 15 civic polls, which left the 227-member House in a state of intense political maneuvering. Under the Maharashtra Municipal Corporations Act, the mayoral seat is reserved by rotation for various categories: Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST), Other Backward Classes (OBC) and Women.
The Numbers Game
In the 227-member Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the magic number for a simple majority is 114. Following the January 16 results, the BJP has emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats, a major climb from its previous tally, while its Mahayuti alliance partner, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, secured 29 seats. Together, they hold a comfortable majority of 118 seats, effectively ending nearly three decades of Thackeray family control.
On the opposition benches, Shiv Sena (UBT) remains a formidable force as the second-largest party with 65 seats, followed by the Congress with 24 seats. Smaller players like the AIMIM made surprising gains with 8 seats, while the MNS was limited to 6, the NCP (Ajit Pawar) to 3 and others rounding out the final count with 5 seats.
While the Mahayuti alliance (BJP and Shinde-led Sena) holds a combined strength of 118, surpassing the majority, internal friction remains. The Shinde Sena, holding the crucial 'kingmaker' status with 29 seats, has reportedly been in talks with the BJP leadership regarding power-sharing, with some reports suggesting they may eye the Mayor's chair for the first term.
Why The Lottery Matters
The lottery is designed to ensure neutrality, but it often throws political strategies into disarray.
- If Open/General: The BJP, as the single largest party, is likely to push for its own candidate.
- If Reserved for Women: All eyes will be on veteran female corporators who successfully retained their seat or maybe a new face will come ahead.
- If Reserved for SC/ST/OBC: Parties will have to pick from a smaller pool of eligible winners, potentially forcing new alliances.
Next Steps For The City
Once the category is announced tomorrow, the Municipal Commissioner will issue a formal notification. Political parties then have roughly seven to ten days to file nominations, with the final mayoral election expected to take place around January 30 or 31.
With the BJP directing its corporators not to leave Mumbai and CM Devendra Fadnavis returning from Davos on January 24, the coming weekend is expected to see a flurry of alliance-sealing meetings.
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