Indore: If figures and trends are any indicator, the BJP is going to win Indore Lok Sabha constituency, which is its bastion, once again and the Congress’s dream to wrest the seat would remain a daydream. As eight-time MP and Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan was replaced with Shankar Lalwani, Congress had the best chance to snatch Indore seat from the saffron party after three decades.
Congress fielded Pankaj Sanghvi against Lalwani and hoped that he with its government in power in the state possesses good chance to register win. Both the parties left no stone unturned to ensure that they win Indore seat but the odds suddenly appeared in favour of the BJP after polling took place here. Nearly 70 per cent turnout was witnessed in Indore about 8 per cent more than the last Lok Sabha elections.
If data of previous elections are looked at, it clearly shows that when voting percentage increases, it’s advantage BJP and vice versa. Mahajan had defeated Congress candidate Mahesh Joshi with a margin of 1.31 lakh votes when voting percentage was 56.46 in 1999.
In 2004, the voting percentage increased to 58.46 and so was victory margin of Mahajan who defeated Congress candidate Rameshwar Patel by 1,93,936 votes. In 2009, the voting percentage dropped to 50.23 which was all time low in the last two decades. In that year, Mahajan could win the seat by merely 11,480 votes. She faced a tough contest from Congress candidate Satyanarayan Patel.
In 2014 riding Modi wave, Mahajan won the seat by 4,66,901 votes when the voting percentage stood at 62.37. An increase of 12 percent vote had given Mahajan more than 4.5 lakh votes compared to 2009 elections. Now, the increase in vote percentage is nearly 8 per cent which the BJP views in its favour.
Congress though may not accept it but it knows that the time it came near to wresting the Indore seat from the BJP was in 2009 when the voting percentage had gone down. A comparison can be drawn from the vote percentage of assembly elections held six months ago but the fact remains that issues of Assembly and Lok Sabha elections were different so the comparison may be wrong.