Conventional wisdom has it that the third phase – by which time electioneering has reached a crescendo -- has a cascading effect on the ensuing phases.
If one were to take this as gospel, the voting pattern on Sunday may be an indication of things to come in the remaining four phases in the central-Awadh region, Purvanchal and the two remaining districts – Banda and Chitrakoot -- of Bundelkhand.
Turnouts have stayed close to or slightly less than 2017 in the first two phases thus far. But with star candidates in the fray and a Sunday holiday, a higher polling percentage was expected in the third phase.
However, that was not to be. According to figures put out by the EC till 5 PM, 57.25 per cent votes were polled, which was less than that in the 2017 assembly elections. Nonetheless, there was a relatively huge turnout in Bundelkhand, with 67.37% votes being polled in Lalitpur district till 5 in the evening.
But while the polling template remained the same, the third round is crucial as it is witnessing a multi-cornered contest, unlike the bipolar fight between the BJP and the SP in the earlier two phases.
The region is largely OBC dominated with a high presence of Yadav community in 8 out of 16 districts. “The ‘savarna’ Hindus and urban ‘Banias’ (trading communities) are rallying behind the Bharatiya Janata Party.
In almost a replay, the Muslims and Jats have closed ranks behind the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal (SP-RLD) combine of Akhilesh Yadav and Jayant Chaudhary,” says Masoodul Hasan, a senior journalist with a keen eye on the region.
The BJP had garnered 40 per cent vote in the last two elections. However, between the 2019 and 2022 polls, caste variables have come into play, which may impinge upon the polling preference of some communities in the third phase.
The BSP is going solo. If Mayawati's grip over the Jatav votes remains intact, and so it seems, the quotient of opposition unity against the BJP comes down by more than a few points. The BJP had won all 19 seats in the seven districts of Bundelkhand region in 2017.
The seven districts namely -- Jhansi, Lalitpur, Jalaun, Hamirpur, Banda, Mahoba and Chitrakoot – were completely swept by the BJP for the first time. Thirteen of these 19 seats voted on Sunday.
(Banda’s four seats will vote in the fourth phase while Chitrakoot’s two seats will vote in the fifth phase.) The region roughly has a population composition of 27% upper caste votes, 43% OBCs and 21% SCs. The area with a sizeable chunk of SC population had once been a BSP stronghold. Even the joint forces of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in 2019 general elections failed to unseat the BJP in the region.
“It is true that the BSP has lost the perception battle, but on the ground, it is turning the contest triangular in several constituencies. The voting percentage of the BSP is unlikely to slide below the 2017 level — it polled 22.23 per cent vote in that election,” says social scientist Badri Narayan, adding that the BSP has adopted the same caste and social formula in ticket distribution this time that ensured its victory in 2007.
A multi-cornered contest has always been a big reason for the electoral success of the BJP. The Samajwadi Party has thus far been able to attract many influential district-level leaders from both the BSP and the Congress. In Ambedkarnagar, for instance, the most prominent BSP faces and OBC leaders - - Ram Achal Rajbhar and Lalji Verma - - have joined the SP.
In the run-up to the 2022 polls, the SP chief has successfully projected himself as the primary challenger to the ruling BJP. Muslims are silent yet consolidated and see the SP-led alliance as the preferred alternative to the BJP. Then, there is a large percentage of undecided voters belonging to the unmarked social blocks, especially among the backward communities that are numerically small but constitute 20 per cent or more of UP's electorate. It is more or less clear how the upper castes, minorities and Dalits will vote. What could tilt the scales would be the voting pattern among the backward classes. Akhilesh Yadav will now be tested on his ability to sell a deal to the electorate, which is better than what is already on the table -- courtesy the BJP.
